When looking ahead to 2050, the global economy is probably going to need about 80% to 90% more copper than what is being produced today – which adds up to between 50-million and 60-million tons a year by 2050, says Standards Chartered Bank metals and mining global head Richard Horrocks-Taylor.

Speaking as part of a commodity outlook panel at the Investing in African Mining Indaba 2025 in Cape Town, Horrocks-Taylor said this type of demand would require “a huge amount of capital”, as well as the ability to work with China as the key demand driver.

Horrocks-Taylor expected to see “very high copper prices” in the next ten years, co-mingled with market weakness, at times.

When he wrote that copper was the new oil three to four years ago, a scarcity crunch had already been on the cards for the second half of the decade, added Mercuria Energy Trading metals and mining research head Nicolas Snowden.

He said two positives for the copper market were an “extreme scarcity” in the concentrate market, as well as an increase in Chinese copper demand.

This increase from China did not mean that the main economic challenges of the Asian powerhouse had been resolved, but that “a very intelligent” stimulus policy developed in Beijing had been able to encourage domestic demand.

Snowden said there had been a meteoric rise in electric vehicle (EV) and home appliance sales in China, set to accelerate this year, with the 2025 stimulus policy twice the size of the 2024 incentive package.

“Right now, China demand is strong, especially at these lower copper prices.”

A big negative for copper, however, was the “highly uncertain” macroeconomic environment, especially in terms of US trade policy, created by the new administration taking charge under President Donald Trump.

This created the risk of growth shocks, “and “nobody knew how to play it”.

The introduction of trade tariffs, for example, could have a suppressor effect on investor confidence.

However, this situation could not last forever, noted Snowden.

“Right now, the market is on edge, but I think there is a path out of it.”

Snowden said the copper story remained an “incredible, compelling, bullish story” for the next two to five years, with record high prices “absolutely, 100%” likely at some point along this timeline.

Copper demand is being driven by growth in the EV, equipment, automation and energy sectors, among others.