Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end gold target to $3 100 an ounce on central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, highlighting Wall Street’s enthusiasm for the metal.
Central-bank demand may average 50 tons a month, more than previously expected, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. Should uncertainty over economic policy persist, including on tariffs, bullion could hit $3 300 an ounce on higher speculative positioning, they said. The latter figure implies an annual gain of 26%, according to Bloomberg calculations.
The precious metal has roared higher this year, setting successive records in a seven-week winning run that’s built on last year’s surge. The commodity’s sustained advance has been driven by increased purchases by central banks, a streak of rate cuts from the Fed and, more recently, mounting investor concern over US President Donald Trump’s disruptive tariff announcements.
“If elevated policy uncertainty — including tariff fears — persists, speculative positioning could push gold prices as high as $3,300 an ounce by year-end,” Thomas and Struyven wrote. In addition, rising fears of inflation and fiscal risks “may push central banks — especially those holding large US Treasury reserves — to buy more gold,” they said.
The more bullish outlook — which came after Goldman pushed back a year-end $3 000 forecast last month — followed official-sector purchases estimated at 108 tons in December, with China taking 45, according to the analysts. Elsewhere, there’ll be a “gradual boost” to ETF holdings on two Fed cuts, they said.
Spot gold was last near $2 909 an ounce, after setting a record above $2 942 last week. 