Top-listed miner BHP Group, which posted a 26% drop in its full-year underlying profit, maintained an upbeat tone on the long-term demand outlook for its key commodities, pointing to China and India as long-term growth drivers even as global conditions soften.

“FY25 was another strong year for BHP, marked by record production, continued sector-leading margins and disciplined capital allocation,” CEO Mike Henry said on Tuesday as the company released its full-year results.

“Against a backdrop of global uncertainty this strong performance has led to robust financial outcomes and reflects the resilience of BHP’s business and strategy.”

Copper production exceeded two-million tonnes for the first time, up 28% in three years, while iron-ore output at Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) climbed to a record 290-million tonnes, cementing BHP’s position as the world’s lowest-cost major producer.

Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation came in at $26-billion with a 53% margin, while attributable profit was $10.2-billion, down 26% on last year.

Shareholders will receive a final dividend of 60 US cents a share.

BHP cautioned that “macroeconomic volatility may increase in the near term as the world adjusts to the evolving global economic order".

The miner highlighted a modest upgrade from the International Monetary Fund, which now projects global growth of 3% in calendar year 2025, up from April’s 2.8% forecast, although below the 3.3% pace in 2024. BHP credits “calibrated stimulus in China and continued strength in India” for underpinning demand conditions.

The company expects refined copper, uranium and potash markets to be roughly balanced, while steelmaking raw materials and nickel are expected to be in surplus.

Steelmaking raw materials, BHP said in its commodities outlook accompanying its results, are entering “an era of adjustment characterised by the crosscurrents of China’s crude steel plateau maturing, India and Southeast Asia’s steel capacity growth, and shifting supply driven by new market entrants and a depleting resource base". 

BHP expects copper demand to remain robust, citing China’s stronger-than-expected consumption in 2025, while iron-ore demand is being supported by Chinese infrastructure spending and resilient manufacturing activity. 

The miner was more cautious on coal, noting that steelmaking coal prices have softened on oversupply, though it flagged that policy shifts in China and new blast furnace capacity in Asia could lend support.

Fertiliser markets, meanwhile, are expected to benefit from a growing and wealthier population and the need for more sustainable agriculture, Henry said, pointing to the Jansen potash project in Canada, which is due to deliver first output by mid-2027.

BHP is also pressing ahead with growth projects in copper, including optimising Escondida in Chile, expanding its South Australian operations, and advancing the Vicuña project in Argentina, described as a “multi-decade copper opportunity". At WAIO, the company is targeting more than 305-million tonnes a year over the medium term.

On spending, BHP plans to invest $11-billion a year in capital and exploration over the next two years, before easing to about $10-billion a year between fiscal 2028 and 2030.

Henry said the company is also making headway on sustainability goals, including cutting operational greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030 and signing contracts for ammonia-fuelled bulk carriers to reduce shipping emissions.

“The global economic outlook is mixed,” Henry said, noting growth is expected to ease to around 3% amid shifting trade policies. “Yet demand for commodities remains strong, particularly in China and India.”