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CRYPTO RISING
17th January 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
HARD TO READ: The world has entered a most uncertain period, with hot wars in hot-spot regions having resurrected the spectre of nuclear conflict. Disinformation has played a role in several political disruptions and is undermining efforts to tackle global problems collectively, most notably the climate crisis. The ongoing geopolitical realignment has diplomatic heads in a spin, as does the prospect of President Trump 2.0.
HARD TO READ
6th December 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF WALL: President Donald Trump did not build the wall on America’s southern border that he promised ahead of his first term. Nor did he get Mexico to pay for it. He seems strongly committed, however, to building a tariff wall during his second term. Such a strategy could be inflationary in the US and may also have global ramifications, potentially even triggering a costly trade war.
TARIFF WALL
29th November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
LONG SHADOW: The election of Donald Trump as America’s next President did not come as a total surprise. Nevertheless, it is still sending global shockwaves that will be felt for at least the coming four years, but probably longer. As with every country in the world, South Africa will have to adjust its approach to relations with the US, which will no longer be guided by issues of principle but rather by a series of piecemeal transactions.
LONG SHADOW
22nd November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
SHOCK ABSORBER: Apart from #Eskom itself, it will be one-way traffic when the National Energy Regulator of South Africa hosts public hearings into the State-owned utility’s latest revenue application between November 18 and December 4. Business, local government, labour and civil society organisations will all be demanding the regulator acts as a shock absorber against the prospect of a hike next year of over 36%.
SHOCK ABSORBER
15th November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
GEO-JUGGLING: Hardly a week goes by without at least one headline pointing to an issue that could result in the collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU), which has been widely welcomed at home and abroad. Many of these are domestic, from basic education to health. In a context where geopolitical tensions are on the rise, however, the divergent worldviews of key parties are also emerging as potential triggers for schism.
GEO-JUGGLING
8th November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
INFLATION TARGET: South Africa’s official inflation-target band is 3% to 6%, but South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago has made it clear for some time now that his target is actually the mid-point. In a recent speech, Kganyago acknowledged concern about the employment and growth costs of pursuing a lower target. However, he went on to quote studies indicating that there had been “little or no cost to getting inflation to 4.5%”, the takeaway being that he has no intention of applying the brakes while he is behind the monetary-policy wheel.
INFLATION TARGET
1st November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
SORE THUMB: Business and the markets have reacted positively to South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU). Cooperation also seems to be the order of the day in many departments and provinces. South Africa’s economic heartland of Gauteng, however, is sticking out like a sore thumb in its overt and covert moves to undermine the GNU. Given the minority-government set-up in the province, it’s a high-stakes political game.
SORE THUMB
25th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
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NEW TARGET
18th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
HIGH-WIRE ACT: The lack of grid capacity has emerged as a key constraint to South Africa’s renewable-energy ambitions. While the National Transmission Company South Africa has a plan, it lacks the balance sheet to go it alone. The problem is that there is still no obvious agreement on the model that could be used to add capacity through Independent Power Transmission projects. Policymakers will have to show skill and agility if they are to navigate this high-wire balancing act.
HIGH-WIRE ACT
11th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF TUG OF WAR: With the official release of Eskom’s allowable revenue application, which confirms that it is indeed seeking a hefty 36% hike next year, all eyes will now turn to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa. The upcoming public hearings in November and December are likely to be robust and hostile, particularly for Eskom, which won’t receive much support, if any, even from government.
TARIFF TUG OF WAR
4th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
FISSION AGAIN: Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa is the latest government champion of nuclear. He has described opposition to the technology as unscientific and has insisted that South Africa should be gearing up to add more capacity beyond Koeberg. The question that this latest ‘fission expedition’ needs to answer is not the science, however, but rather the hard-nosed technoeconomics.
FISSION AGAIN
27th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
GROWTH RETHINK
GROWTH RETHINK
20th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
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WRECKING BALL
13th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF TUSSLE
TARIFF TUSSLE
6th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
MAYORAL CHAIRS
MAYORAL CHAIRS
30th August 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
ORANGE SQUEEZE
ORANGE SQUEEZE
23rd August 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
ADDED PRESSURE
ADDED PRESSURE
16th August 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
DEMOCRATIC RELAY: Races have not been confined to the Olympic tracks, fields and pools this year, with nearly 100 countries having also held elections. Many of these polls have been highly competitive and unpredictable, including South Africa’s, where no single party secured an outright majority. Without question, the gaze of the world has now turned to the US, which will be holding its tightly fought contest in November and where the stakes for Americans and the rest of the world could not be higher.
DEMOCRATIC RELAY
9th August 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
CLOSED SHOP
CLOSED SHOP
2nd August 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
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