BEIJING/LONDON - Chinese copper exports are on pace to set a record in 2025, with October shipments set to exceed 100 000 metric tons for only the third time ever, as rising domestic supply and higher foreign prices spur outflows.

China is the world's largest copper consumer and a net importer of the red metal used in power lines, construction and manufacturing. But its smelters are producing more refined copper than ever and exports, with their higher margins, are increasingly attractive to offset losses from record-low processing fees.

Last month, China likely shipped out at least 100 000 tons of refined copper, according to forecasts from two industry sources who track the cargoes. That would take year-to-date 2025 exports to a record of at least 580 000 tons, surpassing the 456 060 tons of exports for all of last year.

LUCRATIVE ARBITRAGE

Chinese smelters and traders have been lured overseas by higher prices on offer in Europe and North America, in particular earlier this year when premiums on the U.S. Comex exchange soared as traders bet Washington would put a tariff on copper.

"The arbitrage between LME and Comex had made the global market incredibly tight," said Albert Mackenzie, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Even after the White House exempted refined copper from tariffs, premiums remain high enough to draw some material into the United States.

China's refined copper exports to the United States totalled 164 226 tons in January-September 2025, versus 16,763 tons in all of 2024.

Of the 100 000 tons or more exported in October, about 40 000 tons is set to be delivered into LME warehouses, another 40 000 tons consisting of non-Chinese-origin copper is being resold to the US, and an additional 20 000 tons is bound for Southeast Asia, said one of the industry sources tracking the exports.

EUROPEAN PREMIUMS GAIN

The LME copper price was as much as 3 234 yuan ($454) a ton higher than the price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange LMESHFCUc3 in early October, according to LSEG Workspace data, making exports an appealing option. It was 424 yuan a ton higher as of Thursday.

Higher premiums in the European market offered by local suppliers have sparked interest in more cost-competitive Chinese cargoes.

One Chinese copper smelter said that it is considering shipping a few hundred tons of refined copper to Europe each month.

Strong exports have also been supported by the massive increase in Chinese smelting capacity, said BMI's Mackenzie.

China is set to churn out record-high volumes of refined copper this year as smelters try to boost their revenues by boosting their processing of copper ore to extract gold and silver byproducts and cash in on record prices for the precious metals.

Ore supply outside of China has been constrained by unexpected disruptions at major mines including those owned by Ivanhoe Mines and Freeport-McMoRan.