Citi chops back copper forecasts as Trump’s trade tariffs loom
Copper looks set to struggle as extra US trade tariffs from the Trump administration and economic risks in China drag on consumption and prices next year, according to Citigroup.
The metal — widely seen as a barometer of the global economy — is expected to average $8 750 a ton in 2025, down from a prior forecast of $10 250, analysts led by Max Layton wrote in a note. A restrictive monetary environment in developed economies, as well as easing policy support for electric vehicles, would delay a recovery in global manufacturing activity beyond 2025, they said.
Copper has shed about a fifth of its value since hitting a record in May due to concerns over Chinese demand and a stronger US dollar. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on imports from China, as well as smaller levies on goods from elsewhere, darkening the metal’s outlook even as traders expect more fiscal stimulus in Asia’s largest economy.
There’ll be “a balanced refined-copper market next year,” the analysts said, seeing flat consumption from cyclical demand segments and growth in decarbonisation usage broadly matched by another year of below-trend mine supply growth. Prices may rise to $10,000 in 2026 as global manufacturing activity eventually responds to monetary easing, they added.
The bank also cut forecasts for other metals, with aluminum’s 2025 outlook reduced by about 4% to $2 640 a ton and zinc’s pared by about 5% to $2 800.
Copper was 0.2% lower at $9 100.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange at 11:32 a.m. in Shanghai, while other metals were steady to lower.
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