Copper market sees half chance of 10% US tariff by first quarter-end, Goldman says
President-elect Donald Trump, who returns to the White House today, has talked of tariffs of up to 10% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods.
Goldman Sachs on Monday said the copper market is pricing in odds of about 50% that there will be a 10% US tariff on the metal by the end of the first quarter of this year.
Analysts at the US investment bank said in a client note that the estimate is similar to their own 50% subjective probability of a 10% effective tariff on copper by year-end.
Three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange eased 0.3% to $9 167 a metric ton as at 0706 GMT after reaching a one-month peak last week.
President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House later in the global day with an inauguration speech which traders will parse for policies to be enacted on day one. Trump has talked of tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports as well as 60% on Chinese goods and a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products.
Goldman also noted that the oil market is pricing in a nearly 40% chance of a 25% US tariff on Canadian goods including oil, versus the bank's 15% subjective probability of a 25% effective tariff by the end of the year.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 traded around $80.69 a barrel, while the more active US West Texas Intermediate crude April contract CLc2 was steady at $77.36.
The investment bank assigned a 10% chance to a 10% effective tariff on gold being introduced within the next 12 months. It said bullion's status as a financial asset makes it likely to be exempt from broad-based tariffs.
Spot gold prices were up 0.3% at $2 708.77 per ounce while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were little changed at $2 749.70.
The amount of gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses has jumped by one-third in the past six weeks as market players sought deliveries to hedge against the possibility of tariffs.
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