Deutsche Bank raises 2026 gold forecast to $4 000 as bullion hits record highs
Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast by $300 for next year to an average of $4 000/oz on Wednesday, due to strong central bank demand, potential US dollar weakness and a resumed Federal Reserve rate-easing cycle.
The bank raised its forecast from a previously expected $3 700/oz in April, citing factors including downside risks to the Federal Reserve's base case of holding rates steady in 2026 following three anticipated rate cuts in 2025.
It flagged uncertainty stemming from changes in the Federal Open Market Committee's composition and ongoing challenges to Fed independence as being supportive for gold prices.
The Fed is set to announce its policy decision later on Wednesday, amid challenges including a legal dispute over its leadership and US President Donald Trump's efforts to exert greater control over rate policy and the bank’s broader role.
Deutsche Bank pointed to official gold demand continuing at twice the pace of the 2011-2021 average, largely driven by China, and noted that recycled gold supply is running 4% below expected levels this year, easing limits on gold’s upside.
However, the bank warned of risks, including strong equity market performance, seasonal weakness in gold prices during the fourth quarter based on 10-year and 20-year historical trends, and US economic conditions that may prompt the Fed to hold rates steady in 2026.
Deutsche Bank said that while positive developments in US trade negotiations could reduce uncertainty for business investment, gold's sensitivity to such events was limited.
Non-yielding bullion, often considered a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty, tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment. It has risen about 40% year-to-date and hit a record high of $3 702.95 on Tuesday.
The bank also raised its silver price forecast for 2026 to an average of $45 per ounce, up from $40.
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