The global commodities boom of the past decade has led to an increasing politicisation of minerals. However, some of the factors leading to this have been in train for much longer, so it is not something that is going to be reversed in the near term, former chief economist of mining companies Rio Tinto and Norilsk Nickel Dr David Humphreys says.

The London-based Humphreys, who now works as an independent consultant, will be delivering a keynote speech at this year’s Investing in African Mining Indaba, titled ‘The changing face of global mineral supply’.

He tells Mining Weekly that his presentation will consider the drivers of these develop- ments – in particular, the growing polarisation of producers and consumers into distinct camps – and some of their manifestations.

These manifestations include increased taxation, tougher permitting provisions, the imposition of export controls, policies on indigenisation amongst producers (such as in Zimbabwe) and the ‘securitisation’ of minerals amongst consumers, such as the designation of certain mineral as ‘strategic’, he says.

“The presentation will discuss how this process of politicisation is serving to shape global mineral supply and the challenges that are faced by mining investors and mineral host nations in managing resource development in this more politicised environment,” he adds.

Humphreys notes that the commodities boom, which, in turn, launched an investment boom, has given rise to high expectations in resource-rich countries, including many in Africa.

In addition to more established mining countries like Zambia, Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ghana, the effects are also being felt in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone and Tanzania, he says.

“The Mining Indaba is, in part, a product of these raised expectations. Mining is, however, a complex and slow-moving business and all parties to mineral investment need to exercise patience. This challenge will become all the greater as the industry faces up to the reality of slowing commodity markets,” he states.

He says his presentation is aimed at resource-rich countries and would-be investors in these countries.

“This presentation will benefit delegates and industry by providing a longer-term perspective on the current conditions faced by the industry and by shedding light on the interests and motivations of the major parties to mineral investment,” says Humphreys.

He hopes the event will result in the maintenance of constructive dialogue between mineral host countries and investors of all types.

“An improved understanding of the principles and concerns that drive the parties in this process, with a view to achieving a greater level of trust and the establishment of robust partnerships, are also amongst my hopes for the event,” he adds.