SINGAPORE - The prospects for iron-ore prices are improving thanks to a lower than expected global surplus this year, analysts and traders say, though looming new supply from the giant Simandou project in Guinea remains a long-term downside risk for prices.

Analysts and traders have cut their oversupply forecasts for this year to between 20-million and 30-million metric tons, from 50-million tons earlier this year, according to more than a dozen interviews at the flagship Singapore International Ferrous Week conference this week.

That is because demand has been surprisingly resilient so far this year thanks to robust steel exports as buyers stocked up amid signs of an escalating global trade war, while cyclones disrupted supply in major producer Australia.

In the first four months of 2025, China's iron-ore imports slid 5.5% year-on-year while its crude steel output ticked up 0.4%, official data showed.

Iron-ore prices have held well above $90 per ton, below which high-cost miners struggle to break even, despite trade tensions between the world's top two economies that have fueled concerns about the outlook for steel demand.

That has led analysts and traders to revise up their bearish-case pricing scenarios to between $80 and $85 per ton versus $75 or lower at the start of the year.

Medium term demand for iron ore should remain firm because China's young fleet of blast furnaces will require iron ore for at least another decade, said analysts.

"There won't be any big reduction in the number of blast furnaces in China by 2035 from the perspective of the life cycle of the currently running equipment, meaning that iron ore procurement will hover at a relatively high level," Long Hongming, a professor from Anhui University of Technology, told the conference on Tuesday.

SIMANDOU

Simandou, one of the world's largest high-grade iron ore mines, will start shipping ore in November, and its entry into the global market is expected to aggravate the supply glut starting 2026.

However, the increasingly hostile attitude of Guinea's military government, which recently cancelled 129 minerals exploration permits and is locked in a standoff with Emirates Global Aluminium, raised concerns among traders, miners, analysts and steel mills at the conference in Singapore.

Participants questioned whether the government's activist stance could affect how smoothly the project will be able to ramp up to its full production of 120-million tons a year.

Simandou is a joint venture between Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore miner, and Chinese companies including China Baowu, the world's largest steelmaker by output.