State-owned utility Eskom’s average energy availability factor (EAF) exceeded 60% for the seventh consecutive month in November.

This milestone coincided with over 250 days without loadshedding and a significant reduction in open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) use this year, industry organisation Minerals Council South Africa points out.

The increase in planned maintenance aligns with seasonal strategies to enhance reliability ahead of winter 2025, with Eskom projecting no loadshedding in 2025, it adds.

Further supporting this outlook, Eskom plans to add 2 500 MW of generation capacity by March 2025. This includes the return of Medupi Unit 4, Koeberg Unit 2 and the synchronisation of Kusile Unit 6.

“The timely addition of this capacity is expected to ensure continued stability, keeping loadshedding absent through the summer months. Positive year-to-date trends in electricity generation and the sector’s contribution to GDP growth underscore progress in operational efficiency and meeting demand sustainably,” the council asserts.

Relative to the same period in 2023, Eskom saved nearly R17-billion in diesel costs since April, that is, from the start of its 2024/25 financial year.

For the year-to-date, the EAF has averaged 60.3%.

“These developments, partly influenced by seasonal factors such as reduced power plant efficiency during the warmer summer months, highlight a proactive and potentially sustainable approach to improving the reliability of maintenance operations at Eskom’s power plants,” the council highlights.

Unplanned outages have decreased by nearly 4 000 MW since January, while planned maintenance has remained at a robust and sustainable level, the council highlights.

In November, planned maintenance reached just over 7 000 MW, aligning with Eskom’s summer maintenance strategy to enhance power station reliability ahead of winter 2025, it adds.

The council cites statistics released by Statistics South Africa late last week, showing that seasonally adjusted real electricity generation rose by 2.5% year-on-year in October.

On a month-to-month basis, production decreased by 1.4% compared to September.

Year-to-date, electricity generation is up 5.1% compared to the same period last year and is now 5.1% below pre-Covid-19 levels.

In the third quarter, recently published real GDP data showed that the electricity sector positively contributed to economic growth, reflecting Eskom's improved performance, the council avers.

It also highlights the continued decline in the use of OCGTs in November, with the average output remaining just above 100 MW per hour.

This represents a significant improvement compared with the higher usage levels earlier in the year, the council notes.

According to Eskom, the OCGT load factor between April and October was 5.76%, a decrease from 18.17% during the same period last year.

Overall, OCGT use remains low and diesel consumption is well within Eskom's year-to-date budget, the council says.

It also mentions that in November, the average electricity demand was 23 056 MW, closely matched by dispatchable generation at 23 026 MW. Peak demand for the month reached 27 469 MW.