ASX-listed Tungsten Mining has released an illustrative analysis showing the impact of prevailing spot commodity prices on the financial metrics of its previously disclosed Mt Mulgine scoping study, following a sharp uplift in tungsten and co-product prices.

The analysis, the company said, was prepared in response to investor and stakeholder requests and was based on spot prices as at January 14. It included indicative net present value (NPV) and cash flow outcomes, but did not represent a production forecast, feasibility study or an update to the original scoping study.

Tungsten Mining emphasised that the announcement contained no new material information, with all assumptions, inputs and Joint Ore Reserves Committee-compliant data remaining unchanged from the original study released to the market in November 2025.

The spot price analysis reflects a strengthened commodity price environment across the project’s primary and secondary products, with tungsten and molybdenum prices supported by structural supply constraints linked to China’s export restrictions, alongside strong industrial demand.

Exposure to gold, silver and copper provides additional leverage to safe-haven demand and electrification trends.

At the time of the analysis, tungsten prices were reported at a mid-price of $969/mtu, a 128% increase on the $425/mtu used in the scoping study. Gold prices of $4 633/oz represent a 49% premium to the study price of $3 100/oz, while silver at $90.4/oz compares with a study price of $38.5/oz, and copper at $6.0/lb compares with $4.6/lb.

Under the illustrative spot price scenario, the six-million-tonne-a-year case delivers a post-tax NPV, using an 8% discount, of A$3.135-billion in the mid case, compared with A$782-million under base prices, with a post-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 67% and a payback period of about one year.

Average yearly post-tax free cash flow over the life-of-mine increases to about A$354-million, compared with A$103-million in the base case.

For the 15-million-tonne-a-year case, the mid-case post-tax NPV rises to A$4.87-billion from A$1.31-billion under base prices, with a post-tax IRR of 88% and a payback period of about 0.7 years. Average yearly post-tax free cash flow increases to about A$869-million, compared with A$275-million in the base case.

Chairperson Gary Lyons said the analysis demonstrated the project’s strong leverage to current commodity prices, while the underlying project fundamentals remained unchanged.

“With supportive market conditions for tungsten and all co-products, Mt Mulgine is well positioned as a globally significant critical minerals project as we progress its development pathway,” he said.