There is every reason to expect that 2025 will be a year of disruption.

It’s an expectation informed largely by the reality of widespread national political rupture, epitomised by the return of President Donald Trump to the White House, as well as an intensification of geopolitical conflicts that have turned deadly in some regions and have taken on Cold War-like characteristics in others.

It could even be argued that 2025 has all the makings of a perfect storm, which arises when three or more weather systems collide.

In this case, the warm air generated by the erosion of public support for the economic integration associated with a sustained period of globalisation and liberalisation; a period that has brought many benefits but has also been accompanied by widening inequality and a feeling of exclusion.

Then there is the cool, dry air linked to the surging cost of living since Covid that has left many feeling economically vulnerable and angry. This anger is being directed, fairly and sometimes unfairly, towards incumbent politicians who they feel have not responded adequately to their plight and who are perceived to be allowing outsiders, in the form of legal and illegal migrants, too big a share of scarce public resources.

Enter the tropical storm of populist politicians, who are skilfully tapping into this rich vein of resentment by promising a return ‘again’ to an imagined past that can never realistically be attained. It’s a hurricane fuelled by misinformation and distraction carried through increasingly unregulated digital platforms, whose curated echo chambers are penetrating far deeper into our private spaces and imaginations than door-to-door political campaigners could ever have dreamed of.

For South Africa, which is a small and open economy and which has actively supported multilateralism in all spheres, albeit under the umbrella of non-alignment, the implications of this storm are far-reaching.

For one, it could well find itself in a trade tug-o-war between China and the US; one where there will be increasing pressure to choose sides. Seeking to hold a line by insisting that trade actions be taken within internationally agreed guardrails may be the right thing in principle, but could become increasingly difficult in practice.

Indeed, given Trump’s enthusiasm for tariffs, it is highly likely that South Africa will feel the first gusts of the brewing storm in the areas of trade and industrial policy. It will be important, therefore, to be prepared. That said, the pain associated with making the wrong calls in this area will be chronic and long lasting.

Before long, however, these cold winds are likely to penetrate every other aspect of domestic and international relations, from municipal election themes to immigration and climate policy and everything in between.

While some of these trends are embedded, the intensity of the storm could depend as much on political developments abroad as at home, with the 2026 mid-term elections in America likely to be a key future milestone.