Real Economy Yearbook 2022
The world and South Africa seem to be lurching from one crisis to the next.
This time last year, governments and businesses globally and locally were preoccupied with finding ways of recovering from the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the associated lockdowns, which had seriously disrupted production, supply chains and economic activity.
While the virus remains a threat and more lockdowns have been implemented in China this year, countries are finding ways of living with the virus, the potency of which has also, thankfully, weakened as new variants have emerged and communities gained natural and vaccine-induced resilience.
Attention has, thus, shifted decisively to several other crises, including the war in Ukraine, which has led to a surge in energy prices and has raised the spectre of serious food insecurity and intense hunger, especially for parts of Africa.
In addition, there is rising anxiety about climate-change-induced extreme weather events, epitomised in South Africa by the recent devastating flooding of parts in KwaZulu-Natal.
In South Africa, these crises have been amplified by intensifying load-shedding and the deadly July 2021 riots that ripped through KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, leaving deep scars on individual and business confidence.
The poor state of infrastructure more generally, be it roads, water or the state of public hospitals, also weighs heavily on the national psyche.
However, amid all the despair there are glimmers of hope:
- progress seems to have been made to clear the hurdles that initially stood in the way of companies’ taking advantage of the electricity market reform, allowing for projects below 100 MW to proceed without a licence and wheel electricity through the grid;
- higher commodity prices have offered a buffer, albeit temporary, against what would have been either strongly rising debt or sharper budget cuts;
- investment in certain sectors, including automotive manufacturing, has shown resilience;
- the Zondo Commission has largely completed its work and some arrests are finally being made in relation to crimes committed during the period of State capture; and
- the multiparty coalitions now governing various large municipalities have been able to remain largely intact.
It is urgent, however, that further momentum is built – and fast – so that these green shoots do not get trampled on before bearing fruit.
Particular attention should be given to the stalled public infrastructure roll-out, which will not only provide visible evidence of progress but is also vital to arrest the decay and lay the foundation for future growth and job creation.
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