Major diversified mining companies are set to accelerate earnings upgrades this year, with current spot metal prices implying about 18% to 21% upside to one-year forward consensus earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, led by Rio Tinto and Glencore, according to the ‘Diversified Miners 2026 Earnings Outlook’ published by Bloomberg Intelligence on January 28.

Bloomberg Intelligence said the implied upside is among the highest seen since early 2025, reflecting a widening gap between prevailing metal prices and current market forecasts. If spot prices are sustained, the higher earnings outlook could support further equity issuance and scrip-funded mergers and acquisitions (M&A) across the sector.

The report noted that Rio Tinto’s stronger earnings revision momentum improves its relative positioning versus Glencore, but also increases the hurdle for shareholder approval of large, complex transactions that introduce additional execution risk.

Spot prices for key commodities suggest that Rio Tinto and Glencore have the strongest earnings leverage, with both showing spot-implied upside of about 20% to 21% to 2026 consensus earnings.

Bloomberg Intelligence said the composition of that upside is critical, as investors tend to place greater value on earnings driven by copper and precious metals than on iron-ore, where forecasts still assume softer pricing.

For Glencore, strong metallurgical coal and copper prices account for about two-thirds of its spot-driven earnings upside. Gold and silver also make a meaningful contribution, adding more than 4% to its upside, despite not being core earnings drivers for most large-cap miners.

The report highlighted that Rio Tinto’s earnings momentum has been particularly strong. Over the past six months, consensus forecasts have lifted Rio Tinto’s 2026 earnings by about 18%, well ahead of its peers, while spot prices still imply a further 21% upside.

Bloomberg Intelligence said this combination supports Rio Tinto’s relative standing but raises the bar for any large scrip-based deal, as the strategic and valuation case for adding complexity becomes harder to justify when earnings growth is increasingly driven by organic, copper-led improvements.

By comparison, Glencore’s 2026 earnings forecasts have risen by about 5% over the same period. While both companies retain significant upside if spot prices hold, Glencore’s lower revision ratio suggests a larger portion of its spot-driven upside has yet to be reflected in consensus estimates.

Copper is expected to play an increasingly central role in miners’ earnings. Bloomberg Intelligence said copper’s share of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation for major diversified miners is set to exceed 35% in 2026, a multi-year high, compared with about 14% eight years ago.

This shift reflects higher copper prices and portfolio simplification through noncore asset sales, rather than large increases in copper production. Rio Tinto stands out as an exception, having grown copper output by 54% since 2019, helped by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi, while BHP’s copper production has risen by about 11% over the same period.

The growing weight of copper in earnings is also shaping dealmaking across the sector. Bloomberg Intelligence said M&As are accelerating the move toward copper-heavy portfolios, with Anglo American leading the trend following its transaction with Teck.

On a pro-forma basis in 2026, the combined Anglo-Teck group is expected to derive more than 70% of earnings from copper, followed by BHP at almost 50% and Glencore at about 35%.

Rio Tinto’s copper exposure has increased through sustained investment and consolidation at Oyu Tolgoi, but at about 26% it still lags peers. Iron-ore remains Rio Tinto’s dominant earnings contributor at 47%, with aluminium adding a further 18%, underscoring the challenge of materially reshaping its earnings mix without acquiring additional scale.

Earnings growth across the diversified mining sector is expected to strengthen in 2026, with consensus forecasts pointing to earnings growth of about 24% to 28% for Glencore and Anglo American. Bloomberg Intelligence said copper prices are the main driver, with prices projected to rise by about 25% under its scenario compared with 2025, or about 16% based on consensus forecasts.

The performance of copper is, therefore, expected to be central to earnings delivery and to the momentum seen in mining equities. The report added that Glencore’s marketing division provides additional upside optionality if commodity price volatility remains elevated.

At the same time, higher metal prices are likely to increase cost pressures, particularly labour costs, as wage demands and strike activity typically intensify late in the cycle. Bloomberg Intelligence said this headwind should be more than offset for miners with meaningful precious metal by-products, as gold and silver prices are unlikely to retrace materially while geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

The report said this year would be a pivotal execution year for the major miners.

Glencore is expected to focus on delivering a cleaner operational performance after recent shortfalls, while progressing technical studies at Coroccohuayco and the Alumbrera restart as part of its growth ambitions. Anglo American is set to prioritise the completion of its Teck merger, after which further portfolio simplification could follow.

BHP faces key milestones at Jansen, alongside the need to provide clarity on its Australian copper projects and deliver the Vicuna technical study in the first quarter. Rio Tinto is expected to focus on integrating its lithium assets, advancing in-flight projects and concluding its minerals segment strategic review, while Vale’s priority remains executing its plan to double copper output by 2030.

Bloomberg Intelligence said base metals are likely to outperform bulk commodities in 2026, supported by resilient end-use demand, structural tailwinds from electrification, AI and defence spending, and persistent supply constraints. Easier monetary policy through central bank rate cuts is also expected to support commodities as an asset class.

While copper prices have recently been boosted by arbitrage between Comex and the London Metal Exchange, the report said underlying fundamentals should continue to support prices above $12 000/t.

In contrast, iron-ore faces a more challenging outlook as supply growth accelerates into the second half of the year while demand softens amid higher global trade barriers affecting Chinese steel exports.