By: Investec Head of Logistics Vernon Sinden

The year 2025 proved to be a challenging year for the logistics and supply chain sector, where resilience and agility became essential for business survival. As we enter a new year against the backdrop of shifting global economic conditions, the outlook appears cautiously optimistic, but one lesson remains clear: strategic planning will be critical to navigate potential challenges ahead.

Data from 2025 shows the first signs of recovery have started to emerge. In August, South Africa’s major terminals reported a 7.2% year-on-year increase in container volumes for June to August. According to the Global Liner Performance for September 2025 there was also slight month-on-month improvement in global schedule reliability, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 65.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7 percentage points. 

Carrier performance strengthened as well. Maersk led with a 77.0% reliability rating followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 73.6%. New metrics comparing overall arrivals to trade-specific arrivals revealed Gemini Cooperation achieving an impressive 89.1% reliability, while Wan Hai ranked the lowest at 47.9%.

Although these figures represent only a part of the sector’s performance, they signal the first green shoots of recovery – laying a positive foundation for a much-anticipated 2026. 

What importers and exporters should expect in 2026

Businesses can expect a more competitive shipping environment this year as lower interest rates and softer freight rates continue to influence costs. However, early peak-season surges are anticipated from January 2026, making proactive planning essential. Below are key factors that will shape shipping and supply chain performance this year.

Holiday cycles and impact on shipping

Holiday seasons always come with some disruptions, which often impact business operations and require adequate planning to mitigate against. While importers can plan for these as the dates are known in advance, there are some changes that need to be considered when planning shipments in 2026.

The upcoming Chinese New Year presents both challenges and opportunities for businesses in the logistics sector. Seasonal surges in demand are leading to increased shipping volumes, necessitating proactive planning to avoid costly delays. The container shipping industry is facing complex conditions characterised by reduced demand in some markets and potential congestion at key transshipment points; for example, in Singapore. 

As businesses prepare, it is essential to assess critical shipping needs, establish clear communication with suppliers and ensure accurate documentation to prevent further disruptions. 

With the current logistics landscape placing strong emphasises on strategic load planning, businesses are increasingly prioritising shipment consolidation and route optimisation. In addition to improving cost efficiency, this approach helps companies navigate ongoing supply chain pressures and respond more effectively to fluctuating demand. Equally important is the reliability of carriers - consistent delivery schedules can make a significant difference to operational performance, customer satisfaction and long-term resilience.

Rebalancing at global ports 

As a result of the conflict in the Middle East, shipping lines have been avoiding the use of the Suez Canal, opting for transit along the Cape of Good Hope, which impacts transit time and vessel capacity. With the Israel and Hamas ceasefire now holding, there is an opportunity to shipping companies to resume using the Suez Canal and shorten delivery times and restore capacity. 

However, a rapid shift back to Suez could trigger major operational pressures particularly for Europe. An immediate return to the route is expected to temporarily double arrivals from Asia, driving a 39% increase in port handling volumes – well above previous peaks. Even a gradual transition could still lead to a 10% increase above record highs, posing substantial strain on already stretched European port infrastructure. 

Overall, a full return to Suez routing could release an estimated 2.1-million TEU of nominal capacity, about 6.5% of the global fleet, rebalancing global shipment dynamics but will require a strong focus on logistics planning.

Investments supporting growth and sustainability

Momentum for long-term infrastructure improvements continued in 2025. At the G20 Summit, a meeting between Deputy President Paul Mashatile and the Chinese Premier Li Qiang reinforced confidence in trade and investment between South Africa and China. The discussion aimed to advance South Africa’s strategic goals in trade, investment, and industrialisation while strengthening diplomatic ties with China.

The Deputy President highlighted the importance of increasing value-added exports and attracting Chinese investment in key sectors, as well as integrating South African firms into global value chains for inclusive growth. Looking ahead to 2026, these initiatives set the stage for a year of strengthened capacity and sustainable growth. Further supporting this trajectory, Transnet’s partnership with the French Development Agency and the EU will help decarbonise South Africa’s ports and rail operations through a €300-million loan. This investment supports the shift to renewable energy, advances Transnet’s role in the green hydrogen value chain, and enables critical infrastructure upgrades that will encourage a modal shift from road to rail.

2025 challenged the resilience of the logistics and supply chain landscape yet it laid a strong foundation for renewed growth in 2026. Early indicators point to improving reliability, strengthened partnerships, strategic investments and a more competitive cost environment. However, global uncertainties persist making collaboration with the right logistic and supply chain partner a key differentiator. A strategic approach will be essential for driving business growth and ensuring long-term sustainability in 2026 and beyond.