ANZ hikes gold price forecast to $3 800 on solid investment demand
Australian lender ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3 800/oz on Wednesday and expects prices to peak near $4 000 by next June, supported by strong investment demand for bullion.
Gold prices rose to an all-time high $3 673.95 on Tuesday and has gained 38% so far this year, bolstered by a soft dollar, strong central bank buying, dovish monetary settings and heightened global uncertainty.
"Prospects of continued accommodative monetary policy, increasing geopolitical tensions, ongoing macroeconomic challenges, and concerns over the Fed's independence are expected to strengthen the investment case for gold," ANZ analysts said in a note.
Central bank gold purchases are estimated to remain in the range of 900 metric to 950 metric tons in 2025, implying expected purchases of 485 tons to 500 tons in second half of the year, the bank said.
China's central bank added gold to its reserves in August, extending purchases of bullion into a 10th straight month.
"Rising risks to the labour market will likely prompt the US Fed to maintain its easing stance through to March 2026. This will exert downward pressure on US Treasury yields, which normally enhances the appeal of gold," ANZ said.
The Australian lender also raised its year-end silver price target to $44.7/oz, citing support from gold's bull run and firm ETF inflows.
Spot silver rates climbed to a 14-year high of $41.65/oz on Monday.
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