BMI – A Fitch Solutions company – says it holds a cautiously optimistic outlook for most metals next year, expecting most mineral and metal prices to edge higher, supported by declining tariff uncertainties, robust demand from sectors linked to the transition to net zero and tighter supply.

That said, BMI notes in its ‘Mining and Metals Key Themes For 2026: Global Economic Stability to Drive Gains’ report that Mainland China’s property market weakness is set to remain a drag on industrial metals price growth.

Gold prices are expected to average higher in 2026 compared with this year. BMI says prices will ease later in the year as monetary easing loses momentum, in particular as the US Federal Reserve eventually stops cutting rates.

“In 2026, we forecast that most minerals and metals will average higher than in 2025, as the global economy stabilises with easing trade frictions.

“Tariff uncertainty peaked in August 2025 and, while we could see flare-ups between the US and individual economies over the coming quarters, our Country Risk team expects broad tariff uncertainty to continue to decline over 2026,” BMI states.

It adds that this will support demand for commodities in general noting, however, that it does not rule out bouts of volatility, especially as certain metals might face renewed US tariff pressures in the attempt to protect critical domestic industries.

In particular, BMI says it expects copper may be impacted on by further tariffs, with the US Secretary of Commerce required to provide an update on the domestic copper market by June 30, 2026, to determine whether to implement a universal duty on refined copper of 15% from 2027 and 30% from 2028.

Meanwhile, while Mainland China’s domestic housing market remains under pressure, weighing on industrial metals consumption, BMI says it expects this is likely to be partially offset by robust growth in green energy transition sectors, which is particularly supportive of critical minerals, including copper, aluminium, lithium and nickel.

With regard to precious metals, BMI notes that it expects gold prices to remain elevated into 2026 as the US Fed is likely to cut rates at its December meeting over weak US jobs data.

That said, the company says prices are likely to moderate later in 2026, falling below $4 000/oz as the monetary easing cycle that began in 2024 starts to lose momentum, and in particular as the US Fed eventually pauses rate cutting.

“With the global economy set to stabilise further in 2026, tariff uncertainty receding and most of the downside to the US dollar behind us, gold's historic rally is likely to lose its shine by the third quarter of 2026.”

“Indeed, our Country Risk team believes the dollar index (DXY) is unlikely to experience the same volatility in 2026 as it did in early 2025, inherently capping both industrial and precious metal price growth.”

While BMI says it still expects the DXY to trade within a wide range of about 95 to 100 over the coming quarters, it says it does not rule out a move to slightly stronger levels, particularly if the US economy outperforms.

This will cap the extent of the rise in gold prices.

“We note that the balance of risks to our 2026 metals price outlook remains tilted to the downside, given challenging external demand dynamics and risks of weaker-than-expected global growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, with its domestic property sector being a major source of demand across a broad spectrum of the metals market,” it says.

BMI notes that its Country Risk team’s forecasts point to an overall slowdown in Mainland Chinese growth in 2026, with real GDP growth decelerating from 5% this year to 4.5% in 2026.

At the same time, it says unforeseen supply disruptions, trade restrictions of a broader scope than anticipated and more pronounced-than-expected stimulus measures remain major upside risks to its outlook.

KEY VIEWS

Meanwhile, the report indicates that industrial policy will remain the principal means by which countries secure access to critical minerals in 2026, with most activity centred around the EU and the US.

BMI says governments will push a twin-track strategy: scaling domestic capacity while locking in overseas supply via investment and strategic partnerships.

Additionally, BMI argues that Mainland China will double down on industrial policy to cement its dominance across critical mineral value chains.

Measures include accelerated upstream exploration, targeted capacity expansion in critical minerals and greener manufacturing practices.

It says China will deepen partnerships with resource-rich economies through clearer outbound-investment frameworks as recent tariffs and rare earth export curbs show protectionist leverage remains central.

Additionally, BMI says it expects robust merger and acquisition momentum in the metals and mining sector to continue into 2026, fuelled by the accelerated race for critical minerals, with industry players prioritising opportunities that strengthen their exposure to minerals essential for the energy transition, including but not limited to copper, lithium and rare earths.

Large-scale capital expenditure projects still remain in focus, yet risk-averse developments are coming to the forefront.

BMI says it expects continued investment in mining projects across frontier markets in 2026.

“While resource nationalism has been a key concern for a while, we believe governments and local populations in regions including Africa now have more awareness and bargaining power over their mineral resources.

“This will enable more progress to be made on mineral beneficiation compared to previous years, with global mining investors having little choice but to comply with mineral policy changes in these jurisdictions.

“Metals and mining projects will benefit from partnerships with tech, autos and aerospace companies in 2026, including through offtake agreements, as supply bottlenecks threaten to derail key growth sectors like AI, robotics and defence.”