Research agency BMI expects global copper mine output to grow by 2.5% year-on-year for 2025, supported by recovering production in Chile and an ongoing ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi mine, in Mongolia.

Global copper production will also see strong contributions from Peru, Russia and Zambia.

However, BMI has revised downward its expectation for copper mine output for the year owing to a reduced output guidance at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), following seismic activity in May.

According to the International Copper Study Group, global copper mine production grew by 2% year-on-year between January and April, on the back of rising output in Peru, Mongolia and Chile, although this was offset by lower output from Canada and Indonesia.

BMI says global copper mine output is, however, set for strong and consistent growth over the coming years as several new projects and expansions come online, which will be supported by historically elevated prices and a positive demand outlook.

The agency expects copper mine production to increase by an average of 2.9% a  year between 2025 and 2034, with yearly output rising from 23.8-million tonnes this year to about 30.9-million tonnes by 2034.

There are, however, downside risks to this outlook. Diversified miner Glencore, for example, expects a decrease in its copper production for the year of between 850 000 t and 910 000 t, while Anglo American’s copper guidance for the year is set at between 690 000 t and 750 000 t – compared with the 773 000 t of copper produced by Anglo in 2024.

Other mining companies such as Codelco expects copper production to increase to 1.37-million tonnes this year at least, while Antofagasta also expects a 0.5% year-on-year rise in its production for the year to at least 660 000 t.

BHP is expected to produce between 1.8-million and 2.04-million tonnes of copper this year, after producing 1.86-million tonnes in 2024.

Commenting on copper production from Chile, BMI says the country is poised for growth of 3% year-on-year, backed by a ramp-up in capacity at Tech Resources’ Quebrada Blanca mine.

Copper mine production in Chile already increased by 3.5% year-on-year between January and April, owing to higher output levels at the Escondida, Centinela, Mantos Copper and Codelco mines, offsetting declines at mines such as Collahuasi, Los Pelambres and other sites.

BMI remains positive about Chile’s long-term copper production prospects and for it to remain the world’s largest copper producer, especially as more economies seek to secure copper as a critical mineral and strengthen supply chains.

In the DRC, BMI expects copper mine production to grow by 3% year-on-year this year despite downside risks related to the Kamoa-Kakula mine’s lower production expectations.

In Peru, BMI anticipates copper production will grow by 3.2% year-on-year this year, as copper mine production rose by 5% year-on-year already between January and April.