China July coal imports fall 23% on ample domestic supply
BEIJING - China's July coal imports fell 23% from a year earlier to 35.61-million metric tons, General Administration of Customs data showed on Thursday, as ample domestic supply curbed demand.
While July's imports were down from the year-earlier level, they were higher than in June when imports dropped to a more than two-year low as hotter weather spurred demand for air conditioning, supporting electricity consumption.
"A large reduction in imports compared to a year earlier reflects greater coal supply self-sufficiency, as domestic production over the year to date has outstripped coal consumption, which has been suppressed by strong growth in renewable power generation," said LSEG's lead coal analyst Toby Hassall.
Looking forward, the market is weighing whether China will take concrete steps to scale back production and curb domestic oversupply.
A National Energy Administration document dated July 20 called for inspections at coal mines in eight provinces, leading coking coal prices to rise by the trading limit in successive sessions on expectations that the inspections would lead to supply disruptions.
"Such a move by the NEA, if carried out, presents substantial upside risk to domestic coal prices given the potential for a reduction in local production," LSEG coal analysts said in a note.
"This in turn poses upside risk to seaborne coal import prices because of the import price arbitrage dynamic, which is the primary determinant of China's demand for imports."
Analysts at data analytics firm Kpler said in a report that the NEA directive had only temporarily boosted prices and imports while the broader fundamentals pointed in the opposite direction.
"The overall outlook remains bearish due to continued domestic output growth, rising renewables, and weakening steel demand."
For the first seven months of the year, coal imports were down 13% at 257.3 million tons, the customs data showed.
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