Analysts at CreditSights say they are “surprised” by the speed at which BHP abandoned its latest approach for Anglo American, arguing that the miner’s quick retreat signals either limited appetite for a contentious takeover battle or an acknowledgement that Anglo’s board remains firmly opposed to the structure of any deal.

BHP confirmed over the weekend that it had reached out to Anglo – which is preparing for a shareholder vote next week on its merger with Teck Resources – but walked away on Monday after initial conversations failed to shift Anglo’s position.

The attempt was BHP’s second in two years, following its multi-step proposal in 2024.

“We are surprised by the lack of fight from BHP," said CreditSights analysts in a note to clients on Tuesday.

"Given the strategic importance of Anglo American’s copper portfolio and BHP’s long-standing ambition to expand its exposure to future-facing metals, the quick withdrawal signals either limited appetite within BHP for a drawn-out, contentious process or a recognition that Anglo American’s board remains firmly opposed to the structure of any deal,” they said.

They added that the decision not to escalate the bid removed near-term risk for BHP’s bondholders.

“From a credit perspective, the retreat reduces near-term event risk for BHP bondholders by avoiding a highly complex, potentially leverage increasing transaction. However, we still expect BHP to remain acquisitive and potentially revisit an Anglo American approach at a more advantageous time.”

BHP, rated A1/NR/A, had revived its interest in Anglo – rated Baa2/BBB/BBB+ – as the London-listed group prepared for a shareholder vote on its proposed tie-up with Teck Resources. A combination with Anglo would significantly boost BHP’s exposure to copper and other energy transition metals, strengthening its long-held strategy of pivoting toward future-facing commodities.

However, CreditSights noted that Anglo’s board remained resistant, particularly given concerns about deal structure, potential divestitures and the timing so close to the Teck vote. Those factors helped shut down the dialogue before any formal proposal was tabled.

For the Stuart Chambers-chaired Anglo, the analysts said BHP’s soft push increases the focus on management performance as the company moves ahead with its standalone plans. 

BHP, chaired by Ross McEwan, said on Monday that it was confident in its own growth strategy. "Whilst BHP continues to believe that a combination with Anglo American would have had strong strategic merits and created significant value for all stakeholders, BHP is confident in the highly compelling potential of its own organic growth strategy."

The merger between Anglo and Teck, which was first announced in September, marks the copper mining sector's second-biggest M&A deal ever, with the combined market capitalisation exceeding $53-billion.