Memories of that ‘dim-the-lights’ Oval Office ambush have been enveloped in a fog of billionaire-bro brawls, immigrant raids and protests, the militarisation of law enforcement, vaccine-committee firings, and ongoing moves to defund universities. Not to mention the bombings, the expletives and the ceasefires.

Yet, one of the reasons behind President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to pursue a meeting with his unpredictable and vastly more powerful counterpart, President Donald Trump, has come into sharp focus again: South Africa’s trade relationship with the US and what will happen once the 90-day reciprocal-tariff pause expires on July 9.

At the time of writing, there was still no certainty, even though the signals from both Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, were that the pause would continue with those countries that were negotiating with the US in “good faith”. (It’s important to stress that this was the situation at the time of writing, given the propensity of the Trump administration to make unscheduled announcements, particularly when they help shift the debate away from issues that could be politically damaging.)

South Africa is presumably one of those countries seen to be negotiating in good faith, notwithstanding the uncomfortable Oval Office exchange. Indeed, on his return from Washington, Ramaphosa insisted that the relationship had been ‘reset’ during the quieter discussions that had taken place later at a working lunch.

The South African government has also made public part of its offer to the US, which it claims is designed to address America’s trade-deficit concerns, without undermining South Africa’s development and transformation objectives.

While the offer includes a commercially and legally questionable proposal to buy US gas, most of the other elements appear largely sensible. Such as addressing agricultural market access from both sides, including the US’s perennial concerns in relation to beef, pork and poultry; increasing two-way investment; and deepening cooperation on critical minerals, which is a major focus area for both countries, with South Africa hoping to increase production, value-addition and exports, and the US desirous of greater security of supply and diversification away from China.

Greater cooperation on digital trade, which was a dominant theme ahead of the meeting between Trump and Ramaphosa, owing to Elon Musk’s then close proximity to the US President, also remains a feature of the proposed new framework; one where progress could also be made, but possibly with less profile and urgency than would have been the case before the Trump-Musk social media skirmish.

It may be more challenging, though, to convince the current US administration to tackle tariffs in a manner that does not undermine regional integration and protects the Southern African Customs Union. This is because the Trump administration is highly transactional and sees little value in deals that go beyond bilateral quid pro quos.

There is much at stake, given that South Africa exported goods to the US value at $14.9-billion in 2024. But it’s also clear that, even with a pause extension, South Africa will not regain the highly favourable trade terms it once enjoyed.