Global cobalt market seen swinging to deficit from surplus in early 2030s
Demand for cobalt will rise faster than supply, allowing the market to reduce the 2024 surplus in coming years and swing to a deficit in the early 2030s, the Cobalt Institute said in a research on Wednesday.
In the short term, the future of the cobalt market depends on what the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's top producer of the mineral used to make the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, decides to do after its four-month export ban, imposed in late February.
The central African country imposed the ban to tackle the market glut, which saw cobalt prices at a nine-year low at end-February. Since then, prices rose 60% to $16 a lb.,.
Excluding the uncertainty regarding the DRC's export ban, global cobalt supply will be rising at a CAGR of 5% in coming years, with the DRC seeing its market share decline from last year's 76% of global primary cobalt supply, as Indonesia ramps up output more quickly.
By 2030, the DRC is expected to see a market share of 65%, while Indonesia's share will rise to 22% from 12% in 2024, the Cobalt Institute said in a research, prepared for it by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.
Meanwhile, cobalt demand, excluding government stockpiling, is expected to show the growth of 7% CAGR, hitting 400 000 metric tons by the early 2030s mainly due to the EV market expansion. Last year, cobalt consumption reached 222 000 tons.
By 2030, EVs will account for 57% of cobalt demand vs 43% in 2024 with other segments of use such as mobile phones, laptops, superalloys, and other industrial sectors seeing slower growth.
In 2024, the cobalt market was in a surplus of 36 000 tons, or 15% of demand, up from 25 000 tons in 2023, the report said.
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