Goldman says copper’s ‘breakout’ above $11 000 won’t last
Goldman Sachs Group injected some caution into the debate over copper’s prospects, saying its surge past $11 000 a ton will prove short-lived as there’s still more than enough metal to meet global demand.
“Most of the recent copper price increase is based on expectation of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals,” the bank’s analysts, including Aurelia Waltham, wrote in a note. “We do not expect the current breakout above $11 000 to be sustained.”
Copper surged to a record of $11 540 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on Wednesday, fueled by worries of a global supply squeeze as metal is rushed to the US before tariffs are imposed. Trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. stoked that trade last week with a warning of “extreme” supply dislocations.
Mining stocks in Asia-Pacific followed the metal higher on Thursday. Hong Kong’s CMOC rose 6% and Australian-listed Capstone Copper was up as much as 8.2%, among others.
While Goldman raised its forecast for copper in the first half of next year and said the US tariff trade would support prices, the bank suggested “critically low” inventories outside America could be avoided via higher regional premiums and tighter LME spreads. Demand will fall about half a million tons short of supply this year, and there won’t be a copper shortage until 2029, it said.
“While our much smaller 2026 surplus of 160 000 tons moves the market closer to balanced, it means that we do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon,” the analysts wrote.
Copper edged higher on Thursday, rising 0.1% to $11 495 a ton on the LME by 11:19 a.m. in Singapore to extend its gain for this year to 31%. Aluminum also topped up its recent rally, gaining 0.3% to head for its highest close since 2022.
Article Enquiry
Email Article
Save Article
Feedback
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here
Research Reports
Projects
Latest Multimedia
Latest News
Showroom
Weir is a global leader in mining technology. We recognise that our planet’s future depends on the transition to renewable energy, and that...
VISIT SHOWROOM
North Ridge Pumps is an independent manufacturer of pumps. We have a proven track record for product support and customer service throughout the...
VISIT SHOWROOM
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
