Although investors are being much more selective about where they deploy capital, the fundamental conditions for a “cautiously constructive” South African mining sector in 2026 are present, says networking nexus the Cape Mining Club member and Cape Mining Mixer founder Johan de Bruin.

He says investors are attentive to the sector’s regulatory certainty, South Africa’s energy reliability, how rail and ports perform and whether capital is flowing to projects that “actually make sense”, especially brownfield expansions.

From an investor’s perspective, brownfield projects tend to carry far less execution risk, explains De Bruin.

In the current environment, he says investor’s deployment of capital is done more cautiously and selectively, so there is a clear preference for expansions that are capital- efficient, easier to finance and have a shorter, more predictable path to cash flow, rather than large greenfield developments that come with much higher uncertainty.

De Bruin’s optimism that the local mining sector will perform well in 2026 is based on mining companies spending less time focusing on how they are positioned and more time on whether they can actually execute their assigned responsibilities.

“Capital discipline, asset quality and the strength of management teams are playing a much bigger role in investment decisions, particularly given that operating conditions are unlikely to be perfect.”

Simultaneously, there has been a pullback from broad environmental, social and governance (ESG) frameworks, he adds.

Instead, De Bruin says most mining companies are focusing on the handful of issues that really affect day-to-day operations such as energy supply, water security, workforce stability and maintaining workable relationships with communities.

“That narrower focus is simply more practical,” he asserts, adding that while sustainability still matters, the conversation around it is changing: “. . . there is less appetite for ESG, and ESG as a narrative may be fading, but responsible operating practices are not.”

Other Topical Affairs

De Bruin says the Northern Cape is one of the more interesting regions to watch in terms of increasing exploration activity and exposure to commodities such as copper, manganese and iron-ore.

The availability of land, an improving energy infrastructure and experienced operators in this region all help to lower execution risk, which makes it attractive for brownfield expansions and new projects, he says.

Meanwhile, other topical issues include mining regulatory framework misinterpretations and understandings, as well as uncertainty about timing and consistency, which continue to affect mines’ decision-making abilities. This includes how long applications for prospecting or mining rights take to be processed, as well as differences in how requirements are interpreted and applied across regions.

For companies and investors, delays and unpredictable timelines make planning difficult and increase costs.

“Delays are costly, and that is often underestimated,” stresses De Bruin.

“While there are not high expectations of major reform in terms of the regulatory environment impacting the mining sector, there is some cautious optimism that incremental improvements in the mining processes and engagement with all parties involved could ease friction over time.”

Further, while De Bruin believes that mining-related technology is not transforming the sector in South Africa in line with its highest potential, he says these technologies are gradually becoming helpful.

“Adoption is being driven by necessity rather than innovation, with a focus on improving reliability, visibility and control.”

Here, tools that reduce downtime, support energy management and make decision- making simpler are having the most impact, especially amid skills shortages and cost pressure, he adds.