HSBC raises gold price forecasts amid geopolitical tensions
HSBC raised its average 2025 and 2026 gold price forecast to $3 015 and $2 915 per ounce respectively, citing geopolitical risks.
This is an increase from its previous forecasts of $2 687 and $2 615, it said in a note dated Wednesday.
The investment bank said geopolitical risks, including the Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts, along with US foreign policy changes and economic uncertainty, are driving gold prices higher.
Global markets are in turmoil following U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs move to slap a 10% tariff on most goods imported to the United States, as well as much higher levies on dozens of rivals and allies alike, has intensified a global trade war that threatens to stoke inflation and stall growth.
Spot gold was currently down 1.4% as of 1350 GMT after rising to a record high of $3 167.57 earlier in the session.
Central banks are likely to keep buying gold this year and the next but HSBC warns purchases may fall below 2022 to 2024 peak levels, moderating if prices rise above $3 000 an ounce and increasing if they drop below $2 800 approximately.
"Steep and sustained corrections below $3 000/oz, say to near or below $2 700/oz, could trigger speculative liquidation but also revive physical demand and encourage central bank purchases," it added.
HSBC predicts a stronger dollar in late 2025 could limit gold's gains, especially since 2024's gains were based on expected rate cuts that may not materialize, the bank added in a note.
Last year, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times, totaling 100 basis points. In March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "we're not going to be in any hurry to move."
Despite being known as a hedge against inflation, bullion's appeal seems to dull in a high interest rate environment as it yields no interest.
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