As South Africa enters 2026 with mining remaining central to its economic identity, questions persist over whether the sector can attract the scale of investment required to match its geological advantage, notes audit, assurance, tax and advisory firm BDO South Africa partner and business services outsourcing national head Bert Lopes.

BDO is participating in Investing in African Mining Indaba 2026 as a mining service provider and exhibitor, using the event to connect with key industry players and share its global perspective on the mining sector. The firm will leverage the event’s extensive networking opportunities and content sessions to engage with clients, investors and government representatives.

The country remains richly endowed with platinum-group metals (PGMs), gold, manganese and vanadium – all vital to the global clean-energy pivot; however, investor sentiment continues to be constrained by energy instability, rail and port inefficiencies, and uneven policy execution.

The investment climate heading into 2026 is low to moderate, adds Lopes, noting that long-term competitiveness will depend on a more reliable operating environment.

South Africa’s mines contributed about 6% to the GDP in 2025, adding 0.2 percentage points to overall growth in the second quarter, driven by strong PGM, gold and chromium output.

However, he cites industry employers’ organisation the Minerals Council South Africa’s data, which shows real mining GDP contracted in eight of the past 13 quarters, while profitability dropped to its lowest level since 2020 in the first quarter of 2025.

Lopes says policy clarity, logistics recovery and targeted energy reform are fundamental to reversing these downward trends.

He emphasises that the energy-transition economy presents an “exceptional opportunity” for local producers and that demand for clean-energy minerals is expected to nearly triple by 2030, positioning South Africa strongly in emerging hydrogen and battery metals value chains.

Lopes sees local minerals beneficiation and final product manufacturing as critical to capturing this upswing, arguing that South Africa’s mineral output alone is no longer sufficient for long-term competitiveness.

He believes that the country must move from primarily extraction to minerals processing and component production to build a higher-value industrial base and increase resilience against volatile commodity cycles.

Energy Transition, ESG, Technology Expectations

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) expectations continue to intensify across capital markets worldwide, and the standards required to secure green financing are rising, says Lopes, adding that many mining companies are linking executive remuneration to ESG delivery to ensure in-house accountability.

However, he warns that social sustainability remains the most structurally demanding area of ESG implementation, particularly where mining companies are required to compensate for local service delivery deficits.

“Mines are being obliged to step into the shoes of local government,” explains Lopes, adding that this is resulting in mining companies increasingly bearing the responsibility of establishing and improving clinics, roads, schools and basic infrastructure in host communities.

However, while such support strengthens social licence, he says it also increases operational cost amid compressed margins and increased decarbonisation expenditure.

Modernisation

Digitalisation and automation continue to accelerate across the mining value chain as miners seek productivity gains in deeper, more complex orebodies, highlights Lopes.

He expects increased deployment of autonomous systems, remote operations and predictive analytics as companies try to reduce costs and strengthen safety performance.

At the upcoming Mining Indaba, Lopes anticipates that delegates will grapple with the intersection of energy-transition minerals, beneficiation-led industrialisation, public–private partnerships, ESG transparency and the adoption of disruptive technology.

However, the foundation for progress, he maintains, remains dependent on structural reform: “We need to resolve energy constraints, prioritise Transnet funding and reform, and increase private participation in rail and port operations”.

South Africa’s mining sector is at a “point of tension” – not yet in decline, but not yet fully positioned for renewal.

With policy coherence, logistics rehabilitation and investment-aligned regulatory certainty, Lopes adds that local miners could unlock a new cycle of growth anchored in value-added mineral development.

In this regard, he says this year’s Mining Indaba will serve as the barometer of whether that transition is ready to accelerate.