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Jansen potash project, Canada – update

Image of Jansen mine shafts

Photo by BHP

23rd January 2026

By: Sheila Barradas

Creamer Media Research Coordinator & Senior Deputy Editor

     

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Name of the Project
Jansen potash project.

Location
About 140 km east of Saskatoon, in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Project Owner/s
Multinational mining company BHP.

Project Description
The Jansen potash project has an estimated measured resource of 5.17-billion tonnes and an inferred resource of 1.27-billion, both grading 25.7% potassium oxide, 7.1% insolubles and 0.07% magnesium oxide.

Jansen Stage 1 (S1) will produce about 4.15-million tonnes a year, and has a basin position with the potential for further expansions, subject to studies and approvals.

Jansen S1 includes the design, engineering and construction of an underground potash mine and surface infrastructure, including a processing facility, product storage building and continuous automated rail loading system. Jansen S1 product will be shipped to export markets through Westshore, in Delta, British Columbia.

BHP reported in November 2023 that it would not initiate a formal capacity extension for the Westshore port terminal yet and would evaluate the extension closer to S2’s reaching first production.

The Jansen S1 project will convert about 20% of the 5.23-billion tonnes in measured and indicated mineral resources into ore reserves. Jansen S1 is expected to produce 4.15-million tonnes a year of potash.

The project is expected to operate for about 100 years. It includes a separate scope of work for the excavation and lining of the production and service shafts, while the installation of essential surface infrastructure and utilities will continue.

BHP approved Jansen Stage 2 (S2) of the project in November 2023. The project will include the development of additional mining districts, completion of the second shaft hoist infrastructure to handle higher mining volumes, expansion of processing facilities and the addition of more rail cars to facilitate production of an incremental 4.36-million tonnes a year of potash. This will transform Jansen into one of the world’s biggest potash mines, doubling production capacity to an estimated 8.5-million tonnes a year.

Jansen could support two further expansions, lifting capacity to 16-million to 17-million tonnes a year, subject to studies and approvals.

Potential Job Creation
Jansen will create at least 3 500 jobs during peak construction and 600 in operation. The project will have a gender-balanced workforce and about 20% of employees will be local First Nations members.

Net Present Value/Internal Rate of Return
At consensus prices, BHP has indicated an internal rate of return for Jansen S1 of 7.9% to 9.1%, with payback expected within 11 to 15 years from first production.

Capital Expenditure
BHP reported in July 2025 that it expected capital expenditure (capex) for JS1 to increase from $5.7-billion to between $7-billion and $7.4-billion, including contingencies. The company has increased capex once again to $8.4-billion, after a review of JS1 reported on in January 2026.

Capex for S2 is also under review.

Planned Start/End Date
BHP is targeting first production from S1 in mid-2027. 

S2 was approved in October 2023. In July 2025, BHP indicated that given the potential for additional potash supply coming to market in the medium term, and as part of BHP’s regular review of the sequencing of capital projects under the Capital Allocation Framework, it is considering a two-year extension for the execution of JS2 from the 2029 financial year to the 2031 financial year.

Latest Developments
BHP has completed a detailed reassessment of the cost and schedule for Jansen S1 and confirmed that the total investment estimate (including contingencies) has increased to $8.4-billion. The first production timeline has been reset to the original target of mid-calendar year 2027.

In July 2025, BHP said it would provide an update on timing and capex in the second half of the 2026 financial year. The revised cost estimate represents a further increase from the $7-billion to $7.4-billion range disclosed in July 2025 (including contingencies), and from the initial $5.7-billion estimate approved when the project was sanctioned in August 2021. BHP has attributed the escalation to inflation and real cost pressures, design and scope development, and weaker productivity outcomes.

Most of the latest increase relative to the July 2025 estimate relates to additional construction hours and material quantities that had not been captured in earlier execution cost estimates, which were identified through the comprehensive budget and schedule review.

BHP has introduced a response plan to reduce cost and schedule risk through improved productivity, stronger project management and tighter oversight of execution contracts. The company expects these measures to support ongoing efficiency gains for S1 and improve capital intensity in later phases.

Meanwhile, BHP is continuing work on Jansen S2 and plans to update the market on its capital estimate in the fourth quarter of the 2026 financial year. The project is 14% complete.

Key Contracts, Suppliers and Consultants
DMC Mining Services (development of two new mine shafts); SNC-Lavalin (feasibility study for Jansen S1, as well as engineering, procurement and construction management services for S1); Cementation Americas (post-liner excavation and steel and equipping); Wicehtowak Frontec Services, a joint venture partnership between ATCO Frontec and George Gordon Developments (camp support services at BHP’s Jansen Discovery Lodge); 2Nations Bird, a partnership between Bird Construction, Beardy & Okemasis Cree Nation's Willow Cree Developments General Partner, and Fishing Lake First Nation's Development Corporation, FLFN Ventures (works on the Jansen Stage 1 and site services); KDM Constructors comprising the Kawakatoose, Day Star and Muskowekwan Nations, along with the Saskatchewan-based SECON Group of Companies (subcontractor to 2Nations Bird); and George Gordon Developments (subcontractor for the site services agreement); and ABB (friction hoists and electrical system).

Contact Details for Project Information
BHP, tel +61 3 9609 3333.

Edited by Creamer Media Reporter

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