Following the platinum supply shortfall and “dramatic” platinum price surge in 2025, global platinum investment market authority the World Platinum Investment Council’s (WPIC) initial forecast for 2026 suggests a largely balanced platinum market, with a modest 20 000 oz surplus, according to WPIC research director Edward Sterck.

This outlook is dependent on an easing of trade tensions, which would enable a forecast 150 000 oz outflow from derivative’s marketplace Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) warehouses to return to more normalised levels, as well as higher platinum prices prompting about 170 000 oz of profit-taking from platinum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In 2025, total platinum investment demand is estimated to have grown 6% to 742 000 oz, including a net 150 000 oz inflow of platinum exchange stocks into CME warehouses in the US, with total bar and coin demand increasing 47% to a four-year high of 522 000 oz, driven by China, which reached 418 000 oz.

Meanwhile, platinum ETF holdings are expected to show an increase of 70 000 oz in 2025, driven by improved sentiment following the price breakout together with platinum’s robust underlying fundamentals, reports Sterck.

He explains that the uncertainty caused by the US government’s evolving trade policy last year saw volatility in investment flows throughout 2025.

“Should trade tensions fail to abate, then 2026 could become another year where we see platinum supply again fall short of demand as the forecast investment outflows do not materialise,” says Sterck.

He adds that the forecast market balance for 2026 will not resolve the depletion of above ground stocks experienced in previous years. Therefore, tight market conditions are likely to persist.

Top Performer
In 2025, Sterck says platinum was one of the year’s top-performing commodities, with its price rising significantly from May and reaching a 14-year high of $1 736/oz in October, followed by a period of healthy price consolidation.

“The price of platinum benefited from increased investor interest in real assets against a backdrop of geopolitical and macroeconomic turbulence,” he says.

However, despite higher prices, market tightness persisted throughout 2025, reflected in historically elevated lease rates and deep backwardation in the London over-the-counter forward market, notes Sterck.

In November 2025, the platinum investment market was further boosted by the launch of platinum and palladium futures and options on China’s Guangzhou Futures Exchange, he highlights.

“Widely expected to be a force for change, domestic industrial users and fabricators now have a direct, regulated tool to hedge against global platinum and palladium price volatility,” notes Sterck.

He elaborates that, previously, many stakeholders were exposed to this risk without an efficient hedging mechanism. Therefore, these developments are expected to boost consumer confidence and support demand growth, while also encouraging a more robust domestic recycling ecosystem.

Investment, Industry Demand
Ahead of the release of the WPIC’s final data for full year 2025 on March 4, Sterck notes that last year’s price performance reflects platinum’s strong investment fundamentals.

Multi-year deficits have eroded above-ground stocks, with 2025 estimated to have recorded a third consecutive significant market deficit of about 692 000 oz.

“Diverse and resilient demand continues to outstrip constrained supply, and it is estimated that only five months of demand cover from above ground stocks remained as at the end of 2025 – an unsustainably low level,” he says.

Total platinum supply in 2025 is expected to have decreased by 2% year-on-year to an estimated 7.13-million ounces – its lowest level in five years.

Meanwhile, mining supply is forecast to have fallen by 5% to 5.51-million ounces, which is also a five-year low, as producers did not release work-in-process inventory as they did in 2024, reports Sterck.

While all major platinum group metal (PGM) producing regions recorded lower output for 2025, he points out that recycling supply is expected to have recovered by 7% to 1.62-million ounces, as the increase in the PGM basket price supports both the flow of spent autocatalyst material and higher jewellery recycling.

Total demand in 2025 is estimated at 7.82-million ounces – a reduction of 422 000 oz on total demand in 2024, largely attributable to weaker glass sector demand owing to a cyclical slowdown in capacity expansions, with industrial demand expected to fall 22% to 1.9-million ounces.

Automotive demand for platinum is expected to reduce 3% to 3.02-million ounces, as demand from catalysed vehicles, including internal combustion engine and hybrid powertrains, declines in light- and heavy-duty segments, highlights Sterck.

“Nevertheless, automotive demand for 2025 was around 10% above the prior five-year average,” he notes.

“We forecast that internal combustion engine vehicle drivetrains, including hybrid vehicles, will continue to account for the majority of new vehicles produced to 2040,” says Sterck, noting that automotive PGM demand is expected to decline only gradually by about 1.7% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029, as growth in the market share of battery electric vehicles rises.

Meanwhile, platinum jewellery demand is expected to show good growth in 2025, rising 7% to 2.16-million ounces – its highest level in seven years, says Sterck.

He attributes this growth to platinum gaining share from gold jewellery owing to its price discount relative to gold, resulting in increases across most markets.