Nickel ore shipments to Indonesia from the Philippines are expected to surge this year to meet demand from Chinese-owned refineries affected by Jakarta’s curbs on domestic production, according to the head of a Philippine miner.

Exports from the Philippines to Indonesia will likely rise to between 5-million and 10-million tons this year from around a million tons at the end of 2023, according to Tulsi Das Reyes, president of Philippine conglomerate DMCI Holdings’ mining unit.

The bulk of the Philippines’ nickel ore output of more than 30-million tons remains bound for top market China, but shipments to neighboring Indonesia have increased in recent years as Jakarta tightens its reins on mining in a bid to shore up prices.

Part of DMCI’s projected nickel ore shipment of 2-million tons this year is expected to go to Indonesia, he said. But the trend of increasing flows from Manila to Jakarta is unlikely to last, Reyes added.

“If I were Indonesia, I’d maximize what I have internally,” he said in an interview on Thursday. “I don’t think they would want more Philippine imports to be coming in” and Chinese plant owners will also likely prioritize sourcing from their partner mines in Indonesia, he said.

The Philippines is the world’s second-largest nickel ore producer, but it has lagged Indonesia in developing its own downstream industry because of the intensive capital needed for processing facilities. A recent attempt to ban raw mineral exports to push miners to invest in refineries was dropped by Philippine lawmakers last month amid opposition from the industry.

But some Philippine miners have not abandoned their nickel processing plans. DMCI partnered with its larger peer Nickel Asia to study the feasibility of building a refinery. The companies are considering constructing a high-pressure acid leaching plant worth around $1.5-billion and have held talks with foreign companies for technical expertise and potential investment, Reyes said.

A decision on whether to proceed will depend on the pace of mine exploration because it would need a nickel ore reserve of around 300-million tons of a particular grade for 30 years, the DMCI Mining chief said. The company currently has two nickel mines and is looking at developing new sites.

DMCI expects to ship between 2.5 million and 3 million tons of ore next year, with China remaining its main market. The impact of US President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariff policy on China could pose risks for miners down the line.

“All of our business growth depends on what happens in China,” Reyes said.