R132bn of private renewables to be built in SA by 2030
A new Green Cape report is forecasting that 6 GW of new private solar PV and 3.5 GW of new private wind capacity will be installed in South Africa by 2030, involving total investments of R132-billion.
This, despite serious grid constraints and uncertainty over the future of public procurement, which led the authors to exclude from their estimate any new capacity arising from government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) over the period.
The ‘Large-Scale Renewable Energy Market Intelligence Report 2025’ estimates that the solar PV deployment will involve investments of R72-billion by 2030, while the investment value of the wind projects is estimated at R60-billion.
Although public programmes have, until recently, been the main driver of large-scale renewable-energy development in South Africa, the report says the industry is increasingly shifting to private offtaker agreements with independent power producers (IPPs).
The recent underperformance of the REIPPPP, the report adds, has also increased uncertainty over the programme’s continuation in its current form.
“Unless new bid windows are announced, there will be no new investment opportunities in the public space,” it adds.
The private agreements, meanwhile, are being further enabled through the use of wheeling – a financial arrangement that allows electricity generated by IPPs to be allocated across a transmission or distribution network to end consumers, regardless of their geographic location.
“This presents an opportunity for investors to develop large-scale renewable-energy power plants to sell electricity directly to customers through the Eskom or municipal networks,” the report states.
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