The extreme pace of the 2025 news cycle has made it difficult to remember even the most important developments.

For instance, it is difficult to recall the immediate concern raised in January over the way the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) had calculated Eskom’s regulatory asset base (RAB) when making its most recent tariff decision.

It is equally easy to forget the toing and froing ahead of the public hearings into the sixth multiyear price determination (MYPD6) over which tariff-setting methodology should be applied – a dispute that was eventually settled in the courts.

Then, how many of us could be reasonably expected to remember a previous 2022 dispute relating specifically to how Eskom’s RAB should be calculated, and which was also settled by means of a court order.

Some may well remember that Nersa’s MYPD6 decision approved allowable revenue in favour of Eskom that was well below what it had requested for its three financial years from 2026 to 2028. However, it may have been forgotten that a large part of this difference was attributable to the lower depreciation allowance, which was directly linked to the way Eskom’s RAB had been calculated.

The recalculation played a significant role in enabling Nersa, which was under huge political pressure to keep tariffs under control, to announce a 12.74% hike for April 1, against Eskom’s original request for 36.15%. It also approved increases of 5.36% and 6.19% for the two outer years that were, again, lower than what Eskom had requested.

Put-upon South African electricity consumers grudgingly accepted the three-year price path as almost acceptable, particularly when juxtaposed against Eskom’s “outrageous” request. The RAB issue was noted, but was swatted away with contempt, given a widespread feeling that Eskom was simply gaming the system, while doing far too little to improve efficiencies and root out waste and corruption.

Nevertheless, the threat of litigation lurked in the background and, given the fact that Nersa had been found wanting legally in so many previous cases, it represented an all too real danger. One that materialised in the form of an Eskom application to have the MYPD6 decision set aside and remitted back to the regulator for a redetermination and an adjustment to the allowable revenue for the 2027 and 2028 financial years.

In the event, the case did not play out in the courts, with Nersa and Eskom instead concluding a behind-closed-doors R54-billion settlement, with the first R35-billion set to be liquidated in the 2027 and 2028 financial years. As a result, tariffs are poised to rise by 8.76% and 8.83% over the next two years, with the balance to be recovered in the next tariff cycle.

What’s more, there are approved and upcoming regulatory clearing account allowances running into billions of rands in favour of Eskom that also need to be recovered in the tariff, raising further uncertainty about the price path.

Unhappiness is spreading and the pushback has only just begun.