As the US turns inward with a sweeping new tariff on copper imports, Australia is positioning itself to step up as a stable, reliable supplier in increasingly fractured global markets.

The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) says President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on foreign copper – set to take effect from August 1 – could destabilise global supply chains, but also presents an opportunity for Australia to strengthen its position in critical minerals trade.

In a statement on Wednesday, MCA CEO Tania Constable warned the tariff risks fuelling uncertainty across international markets already grappling with geopolitical and economic instability. “These measures disrupt global trade, undermine investment confidence, and increase costs for consumers, including in the United States."

“Sudden and sweeping trade actions only heighten uncertainty,” Constable said. “The right response is not to raise barriers, but to make economies more resilient, productive and globally connected.”

Copper is a critical input in clean energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, and next-generation electronics, making it a strategic mineral in the shift to net zero. As such, trade disruptions in the copper market carry broad implications beyond just mining.

Although Australia is the world’s fifth biggest exporter of refined copper, the country’s direct exports to the US is marginal. Less than 1% of its total copper exports is destined for the US. Australia is thus relatively insulated from the immediate fallout of Trump's tariffs, yet well-placed to capitalise on a reordering of global copper supply chains.

Constable said Australia had to reinforce its status as a “trusted, low-risk partner” for critical minerals, and that the country had to proactively expand its role in global markets.

“Australia has long been a stable, secure and responsible supplier of minerals,” she said. “As others turn inward, Australia has the opportunity to step forward.”

Australia’s copper export outlook is set to strengthen over the next two years, with volumes forecast to reach one-million tonnes by 2026/27, up from 793 000 t in 2024/25, according to government projections.

Export earnings are expected to rise in parallel, from A$13.2-billion in 2024/25 to A$18.2-billion in 2026/27, underpinned by stronger prices and the ramp-up of new mining projects. This comes despite a near 10% decline in mine output in 2024/25, driven by lower production at major sites including Mount Isa, Prominent Hill and Tritton, and the mothballing of the Capricorn and Savannah operations. Glencore’s planned closure of the Mount Isa underground copper mine at the end of this month will further reshape domestic supply, but national output is still projected to edge over the next two years as a wave of small and mid-tier projects add about 70 000 t/y of capacity.

On the processing front, refined copper production is expected to recover from a 9% drop in 2024/25, caused by outages at Olympic Dam and declining throughput at Mount Isa, to reach 471 000 t by 2026/27. The future of Glencore’s smelting and refining operations in Queensland remains uncertain, with a key investment decision on whether to rebrick the Mount Isa smelter expected by the end of the year.

The MCA backed the Albanese government’s efforts to build economic resilience, diversify trade ties and provide certainty for investors, particularly amid global moves that risk fragmenting established supply networks.

Trump’s latest trade move is seen by analysts as a pre-election pitch to revive American manufacturing. But critics argue that the tariff may do more harm than good, by driving up input costs for US industries and straining international partnerships.