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UBS raises 2026 mid-year gold target price by $300 to $4 500/oz

20th November 2025

By: Reuters

  

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UBS on Thursday raised its 2026 mid-year gold target price by $300 to $4 500/oz on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistent geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns and strong central bank and ETF demand.

"We expect gold demand to rise further in 2026, influenced by anticipated Fed rate cuts, lower real yields, continued geopolitical uncertainties, and changes in the domestic US policy environment," UBS said in a note.

The bank lifted its upside case for gold by $200 to $4 900/oz if political and financial risks spike and kept its downside case at $3 700/oz.

A worsening U.S. fiscal outlook is likely to sustain central bank and investor gold buying, given its lack of counterparty risk, UBS said, adding that it expects exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand to remain strong in 2026.

Bullion has gained around 55% this year, on geopolitical and trade tensions, robust central bank buying and expectations of US interest rate cuts, among other factors.

On the flip side, potential Fed hawkishness and the risk of central bank gold sales remain key challenges to its bullish outlook, UBS said.

Edited by Reuters

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