Brazilian miner Vale is preparing to meet rising iron ore demand from India, which could double its steel production by the end of the decade, CEO Gustavo Pimenta told Reuters.

Rising sales to India and other Asian markets should help to offset stagnant demand from China, where steel production has flattened to near one-billion metric tons annually and could decline slightly in coming years, he said.

"India has 1.6-billion people, has surpassed China, and needs massive infrastructure investments, which means a lot of steel," Pimenta said in an interview at Vale's Rio de Janeiro headquarters on Friday.

He said the capacity of India's steel producers is likely to double to around 300-million tons in the next five to seven years.

Vale's high-grade ore blends well with India's lower-quality supply, Pimenta added, creating opportunities for both markets.

"We bring quality to the Indian mix. As steel output doubles, we see a big growth opportunity," Pimenta said.

India is expected to import about 10-million tons of Vale's ore this year, up from almost none a few years ago, but still a small fraction compared to China, which accounts for around 60% of Vale's sales.

While China will remain the world's top steel producer, Vale sees its output stabilizing. "We don't see growth ahead. Chinese production will probably remain steady, perhaps even decline," Pimenta said, contrasting that with India's 12% annual growth.

Vale also expects rising demand from other Asian markets, with sales to Vietnam projected at eight-million tons in 2025, up sharply from previous years.

VALE DAY

Strong third-quarter performance, including 5% sales growth and its highest iron ore output since 2018, positions Vale well ahead of a long-term strategy update to be detailed at its annual "Vale Day" investor event in New York on December 2.

Pimenta declined to comment on new production targets, but said Vale will outline projects to boost iron ore and copper capacity in its key Northern System operations.

Vale plans to invest 70-billion reais ($12.95 billion) by 2030 in its "Novo Carajas" program in Brazil, including a project to raise annual iron ore capacity by 20-million tons. Now 80% complete, the initiative is set to begin operations in late 2026.

"As we explore more of Carajas, we get increasingly optimistic about its potential," Pimenta said. "At Vale Day, we'll give investors more visibility and confidence."

Vale also aims to double its copper output by 2035.

Amid expansion plans, Vale expects to reclaim the title of world's largest iron-ore producer this year, surpassing Rio Tinto, which took the lead after Vale's 2019 Brumadinho dam disaster.

Outside Brazil, Vale is considering selling its Thompson nickel mine in Canada amid market interest and weak prices due to Indonesia's surging output.

"It's an asset we struggled to bring to the cost level we wanted," Pimenta said. "We're assessing if there's a better owner."

The mine produced about 10,000 tons in 2024, or 6% of Vale's total.