A mining and metals 2026 survey by global law firm White & Case found an optimistic outlook for the sector with strong growth expected in the market as participants adapt to the policy-driven business cycle in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.

In December 2025 to January this year, White & Case conducted a poll of 136 decision-makers in the mining and metals sector through an online survey.

The vast majority of survey respondents expect either strong growth (55%) or moderate growth (34%) in the mining industry over the next five years.

This year, government support of critical minerals (33%) and geopolitics fragmenting markets (32%) are expected to be the strongest trends driving activity in mining and metals.

There is scepticism over deep-sea mining, with 48% perceiving limited potential for the sector to meet future mineral demand owing to major concerns about feasibility.

Supply chain disruptions (22%) alongside a fragmented regulatory and trade landscape disrupting investment (21%) are likely to be the biggest impacts of geopolitical factors this year, according to survey respondents.

Nearly three-quarters (73%) expect greater divergence between the US and China on trade and critical minerals policy over the next 12 months.

The survey reveals that 39% of respondents predict growth in State-backed and agency financing for upstream projects domestically and abroad to secure critical mining and metal supply chains this year.

The two geopolitical factors forecast to have the greatest impact on primary production this year are the continued dominance of China in processing and refining capacity (35%) and national agendas focused on resource security underpinning the production of critical minerals (29%).

Gold (33%) and copper (23%) are predicted to benefit this year after strong price growth in 2025 with both commodities significantly outperforming US and European equity indices.

Three in ten (30%) respondents believe coal is most likely to underperform this year, followed by lithium (12%).

A lack of available assets is seen as the key obstacle in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactional activity this year by the highest proportion of respondents (19%), followed by the cost of capital (17%).

The formation of strategic partnerships between industry participants (32%) is expected to be the most likely type of transactional activity this coming year.

Precious metals and gold (29%) are most likely to experience consolidation in the next 12 months followed by critical minerals (27%) and base metals (24%), respondents believe.

“In 2025, geopolitics drove events and investment in the mining and metals sector. The unprecedented degree of uncertainty, led by rapidly changing policies in the US and China, shifted markets into a deal cycle driven by politics instead of prices and supply/demand expectations,” White & Case partner and global mining and metals industry group leader Rebecca Campbell explains.

“In 2026, the sector faces a decision: Be a pawn or a player in a business cycle and environment structurally driven by a geopolitical race for mineral security and national power. The next 12 months promise a consolidation of the sector’s ongoing politicisation, providing opportunities and risks for miners and investors increasingly reliant on access to policy support across metals markets that are generally well supplied or over-supplied,” she adds.

“Factors that ostensibly limit the potential for M&A activity – volatile national policies, resource nationalism and the cost of capital – are also potential deal drivers. The ongoing attempted merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources is the highest-profile strategic partnership to emerge in the past several years, matching the 39% of respondents who believe M&A activity in 2026 will be likely to reflect these types of partnerships,” White & Case energy, infrastructure project and asset finance partner Nick Crawford avers.

“Despite persistent market interest, however, relatively few such “mega” mergers have occurred. With the political focus on rare earths, battery metals and niche markets, where relatively small volumes of capital can meaningfully de-risk supply chains, junior and intermediate miners may disproportionately benefit, since many relevant projects are too small to drive majors’ revenues,” he adds.