Australia’s mining and energy workforce has bounced back strongly from last year’s downturn, but a new forecast warns future growth risks being undermined by weakening project pipelines, mounting red tape and tougher global competition for investment. 

'Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast: 2025–2030', released last week by the Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association (AREEA), shows 96 major projects are expected to commence production between late 2025 and 2030. 

Valued at A$129.5-billion, these projects are forecast to create demand for 22 279 new operating-phase jobs, lifting the national resources and energy workforce by just 7.1% to 2030 – the lowest five-year outlook in more than half a decade. 

While still substantial, the figures represent a softening compared with last year’s forecast of 108 projects and 27 070 jobs, and the 2023 forecast of 103 projects and 28 260 jobs. 

The report also shows Australia’s project pipeline continues to diversify beyond traditional strengths, with 21 “other commodities” projects (alumina, graphite, phosphate, mineral sands) requiring around 3 000 workers, alongside strong contributions from gold, copper and critical minerals. 

Iron-ore (eight projects and 3 400 workers) and coal (seven projects and 3 100 workers), however, both remain dependable growth drivers. 

Meanwhile, energy sector investment remains healthy – albeit slightly down on last year’s report – at 16 planned major projects worth A$78.6-billion in capital expenditure and forecast to require 2854 new production-related employees by 2030. 

AREEA CEO Steve Knott said the forecast again underlined the sector’s critical contribution to the national economy but cautioned against poor policy choices. 

“Iron-ore, coal and gas remain the bedrock of our export earnings, taxes and royalties. Without this sector, there would be no federal surpluses and no reliable funding for hospitals, schools, Medicare or aged care,” Knott said. 

“Yet governments seem intent on burying the golden goose in regulatory red tape, lawfare and workplace relations experiments that make investors think twice about putting their money into Australian projects. 

“Heightened climate activism, shifting policy settings, extended approval timelines and mounting red tape are all adding uncertainty to long-term planning and risk delaying critical developments.” 

STATE PIPELINES DIVERGING
Western Australia, traditionally the powerhouse of the national workforce, has seen its pipeline fall from 48 projects and more than 11 000 jobs in 2024 to 42 projects and about 8924 jobs in 2025. 

New South Wales has slipped even more substantially, with 11 projects forecast to create 3 290 jobs across 2025 to 2030 – down from 19 projects and 5 412 in last year’s report. 

Queensland’s forecast shows relative strength, with 17 projects expected to generate 4 412 new jobs by 2030. 

Knott said the rebound put Queensland back in line with its 2023 forecast but warned that gains could be short-lived. 

“Our report shows Queensland’s pipeline is recovering after last year’s slump, but the state faces a growing risk of job losses in its existing coal industry. The royalty regime, among the highest in the world, is eroding investor confidence and putting long-term coal operations at risk,” he said. 

“If production contracts or projects are wound back prematurely, any new workforce gains could be wiped out. This would not only cost Queensland thousands of jobs, but also weaken one of its most important revenue streams for funding services and infrastructure.”