https://newsletter.mw.creamermedia.com

Aluminium price surge will depend on length of Strait of Hormuz disruption, Goldman Sachs says

3rd March 2026

By: Reuters

  

Font size: - +

Goldman Sachs said Monday the biggest risks to aluminium stem from potential disruptions to export routes and access to raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz, noting that the effect on prices should be limited if shipping disruptions are short.

Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose to its highest in more than a month following the joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Roughly 150 ships are stranded around the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping artery between points in Asia and Europe, after the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards told state television Monday that any ship that attempted to transit the strait would be set on fire. 

Most of the aluminium produced in the Middle East is exported to the United States and Europe. Goldman, in a Monday note, said the market is already trading well above fair value, but prices could keep rising "substantially" if disruptions persist for a month, Goldman said.

Goldman Sachs estimated that one month of full production loss from the region would reduce first‑quarter 2026 global aluminium inventory from 51 days to 48 days. Combined with a surge in energy prices, that could temporarily justify a price of $3 600 - about $400 above spot - to maintain trend margins relative to inventory.

The bank added that its base case remains for LME aluminium to average $3 150 in the first half of this year, noting that it sees substantial upside to European aluminium premiums.

Edited by Reuters

Article Enquiry

Email Article

Save Article

Feedback

To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here

Showroom

Industrial Nozzles & Systems (Pty) Ltd
Industrial Nozzles & Systems (Pty) Ltd

Industrial Nozzles & Systems (Pty) Ltd (Est. 2000) exclusive representative in Southern Africa for LECHLER GmbH (Est. 1879) - Europe's leading...

VISIT SHOWROOM 
Astore Keymak
Astore Keymak

Astore Keymak is one of South Africa’s leading suppliers of high-quality Thermoplastic Pipeline Systems, with branches in the major provinces.

VISIT SHOWROOM 

Latest Multimedia

sponsored by

Gold and platinum developments make headlines
Gold and platinum developments make headlines
27th February 2026
Magazine round up | 27 February 2026
Magazine round up | 27 February 2026
27th February 2026

Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):

Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format

Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):

All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.

Already a subscriber?

Forgotten your password?

MAGAZINE & ONLINE

SUBSCRIBE

RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA

SUBSCRIBE

CORPORATE PACKAGES

CLICK FOR A QUOTATION







sq:0.054 0.136s - 103pq - 2rq
Subscribe Now