Copper breakout above $11 000 to be short-lived, Goldman Sachs says
Current copper market fundamentals justify a price consolidation towards the top end of their $10 000 to $11 000 per metric ton forecast range, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday, while adding that any clear break higher is unlikely to be sustained.
Copper smashed through its previous record high of $11 104.50 on Wednesday to reach as high as $11 200, spurred by concerns over supply and hopes of a US-China trade deal.
Analysts, however, questioned how much further the rally could run without a sustained pickup in demand.
Copper prices retreated on Thursday, as a stronger dollar weighed on the greenback-priced asset. M
Goldman Sachs noted it does not believe that the fundamental tightness expected in the copper market will emerge over the next six months. The market will be in a small surplus in 2026 even accounting for a sizeable decline in global refined production, it said.
The investment bank said that this was consistent with its $10,500 per ton copper price forecast for 2026.
"Without a sustained drop in global visible copper inventory, which is currently rising (even outside of the US), we expect investors to start exiting long copper positions in early-2026 as the market tightness thesis fails to materialise," it said.
Goldman noted that while LME copper investor positioning is stretched, COMEX open interest remains low compared to 2024 second-quarter peak, suggesting potential for further investor inflows into COMEX copper that could temporarily further lift the LME copper price.
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