Copper can reach $10 000 before tariffs bite, says Citigroup
Copper will hit $10 000 a ton in the coming three months, according to Citigroup, which said the global market will remain tight until the timeline for US import tariffs becomes clearer.
The metal has climbed in recent weeks after President Donald Trump ordered a probe into copper imports, sparking a shipping rush to the US ahead of any import levies. Copper on the London Metal Exchange just reached its highest since October.
“We think ex-US physical market tightening is likely to persist through to May/June, temporarily offsetting price headwinds from broader US tariff announcements,” Citigroup’s analysts including Max Layton wrote in an email.
Industrial metals have held up reasonably well despite growing fears for the US economy as Trump upends trade policy. Copper has also been underpinned by growing scarcity of raw materials as demand grows faster than the world’s mines can expand.
Copper was up 0.3% at $9 797 a ton by 11:14 a.m. Shanghai time, extending its advance this year to nearly 12%.
In China, authorities have issued more licenses for exports as smelters in the world’s top producer face deepening losses amid fierce competition for copper concentrate. Processing fees have deepened a slump below zero.
Trump’s revamped Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum came into force on Wednesday, sparking retaliation from the European Union and Canada. Trump has made clear he wants tariffs on copper, but his Commerce Department first has to conduct an investigation and return its recommendations.
Citi’s view marks a change from its previous call for copper to fall to $8 500 a ton in the second quarter. The bank said it still expects a pullback “once tariff-induced US copper import demand collapses, which we expect as Section 232 copper tariff implementation draws nearer.”
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