Intergovernmental organisation UN Trade and Development (Unctad) says the global copper industry is entering a pivotal phase of requiring more production but also smarter and more inclusive technologically driven growth strategies.

With copper demand set to rise by 40% by 2040, current supply remains strained, particularly as China dominates the processing of this critical mineral and developing countries remain limited to raw material exports if more value-added opportunities are not pursued.

Unctad calls for smarter trade policies, investment and recycling to close the copper supply gap globally, lest the world’s shift to clean energy and digital infrastructure gets stalled.

In a ‘Global Trade Update’ publication released on May 6, Unctad says that, to meet the projected 40% rise in demand by 2040, 80 new copper mines and $250-billion of investment will be required by 2030, given the long development timelines of the industry.

More than half of global copper reserves are based in five countries – Russia, Australia, Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo – but most of the value is added elsewhere.

China imports 60% of global copper ore and produces more than 45% of the world’s refined copper supply.

Asia’s share, led by China, of global copper refining tripled in three decades from 10.8-million tons in 1990 to 26.6-million tons in 2023.

Unctad points out that many resource-rich countries are stuck at the bottom of the value chain, exporting raw materials but unable to industrialise, which underscores a need for investment in infrastructure, skills and targeted trade policy.

Unctad international trade and commodities director Luz Maria de la Mora says copper is no longer just a commodity but a strategic asset.

“Its market exposes the power asymmetries that shape global trade. That is why we need to invest in local value addition, scale up recycling and remove trade barriers that limit opportunity,” she states.

De la Mora adds that copper development can drive increased trade for many emerging markets, including recycling efforts. In 2023, 4.5-million tons – or almost 20% of global refined copper – came from secondary sources.

The US, Germany and Japan are currently top copper scrap exporters while China, Canada and South Korea lead on imports.

For developing countries, copper recycling is a strategic opportunity. Building local capacity can reduce import dependence, lower emissions and support circular economy practices to protect the environment and use resources more efficiently, Unctad says.

The organisation concludes that copper is a test case for managing critical materials amid global trade tensions, fragmented supply chains and shifting industrial policies.

Unctad urges smarter trade and industrial strategies, including streamlined permitting, reduced tariffs and more regional value chains, to help developing countries move up the value chain and share more equitably in energy and technology transformations.