Precious metals consultancy Metals Focus says in its latest ‘Precious Metals Investment Focus’ report for 2025/26 that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026, with the metal likely to reach the $5 000/oz level.

The consultancy explains that ongoing uncertainty on US trade policy, a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates are key drivers for an even higher gold price.

Additionally, investor demand for gold will be supported by geopolitical tensions and continued official sector buying, even if below record levels.

Metals Focus forecasts the gold price to average 33% higher year-on-year at $4 560/oz in 2026.  

Silver, in turn, is set to benefit from many of the same drivers as gold, including policy uncertainty and robust investment demand.

Persistent physical tightness in the London market and resilient bar and coin buying, particularly in India, should offer additional support.

“While gold may regain leadership later in the year as supply constraints ease, silver is forecast to break above $60 in mid-to-late 2026, with an average price of $57 forecasted for the year,” Metals Focus states.

In respect of platinum, the precious metal has rallied more than 80% in the year-to-date, supported by gold’s strength and market tightness linked to trade disruptions and localised stockholding.

The market is expected to record a fourth consecutive deficit in 2026, though price action is increasingly driven by investment and liquidity dynamics. Metals Focus expects platinum prices to average $1 670/oz in next year, marking a 34% year-on-year increase.

Palladium has joined the broader rally, gaining more than 70% so far in the year-to-date.  

Price strength has been boosted by tariff risks, including a Section 232 probe and antidumping petition in the US. A temporary spike to about $2 000/oz is possible in early 2026, before fundamentals reassert.

Metals Focus predicts the average palladium price for the year to be 20% higher at $1 340/oz, amid another market deficit – albeit a narrower market deficit.

In terms of minor platinum group metals (PGMs), Metals Focus expects narrower market deficits owing to stronger secondary supply and softer demand in select sectors. Rhodium supply, for example, will remain tight despite a smaller deficit, with prices forecast to average $7 500/oz in 2026, marking a 23% year-on-year increase.

Ruthenium is projected to average $780/oz in the year, just 5% higher year-on-year, while iridium should rise modestly to $4 600/oz as its deficit nearly disappears.

“Gold’s strength continues to reflect an extremely positive macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop for safe haven assets, coupled with concerns towards other safe havens.

“In our view, the single most important factor has been uncertainty around US trade policy. The fluidity of tariff announcements and the prospect of further measures have complicated planning for companies and governments around the world and produced ever fatter macroeconomic tail-risks,” Metals Focus says.

There are concerns that inflation in the US could prove stickier than hoped if tariffs keep import prices elevated and supply chains unsettled, potentially at the same time as growth is hit, cost pressures squeeze margins and uncertainty hampers capital expenditure.

Combined, these reinforce a non-trivial stagflation tail risk; historically a supportive backdrop for gold, as both a hedge against price instability and a portfolio diversifier.

Metals Focus explains that there are also mounting signs of cooling in parts of the US economy which, alongside the above-discussed uncertainties, have sharpened expectations for rate cuts.

“Lower real yields and a more benign policy rate path reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, sustaining interest in gold.

“Layered over this is concern over persistent fiscal deficits, the ongoing and rapid accumulation of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve.”

This raises questions about long-run debt sustainability for the US and, by extension, the dollar’s role as the de facto reserve currency in the future. With few viable alternatives, gold has hugely benefited from this.

“In 2025, precious metals markets experienced significant price appreciation, driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, trade policy developments, and shifting investor sentiment.

“Gold and silver were the clear beneficiaries, as declining real interest rates, persistent inflationary concerns, and renewed geopolitical tensions reinforced their safe-haven status. Central banks remained healthy net buyers, further underpinning market strength,” says Metals Focus MD Philip Newman.

He adds that, among the PGMs, platinum and palladium also saw sharp gains, supported by tighter market conditions, trade-related supply disruptions and speculative inflows.

Although the longer-term fundamentals for palladium remain challenging, both metals benefited from the broader rally across the precious complex.

The minor PGMs, meanwhile, continued to experience narrowing deficits as recycling improved and industrial demand eased.

“Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 remains constructive across the precious metals spectrum.

“Persistent policy uncertainty, ongoing fiscal challenges, and elevated geopolitical risks are expected to keep investor interest high,” Newman states.  

He concludes that while volatility will remain a feature of these markets, the underlying conditions point to another strong year, led once again by gold, which Metals Focus expects to challenge the $5 000/oz level.