Goldman slashes copper forecast on softening Chinese demand
China’s increasingly disappointing economic recovery will delay an expected rally in copper, said Goldman Sachs Group as it slashed its forecast for next year by almost $5 000/t.
The sharp drop in copper inventories that the bank had been anticipating would come much later than previously thought, it said in a note by analysts including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven. Goldman cut its estimate for the metal to $10 100/t for next year, and pushed back its previous end-2024 forecast of $12 000 to post-2025.
The bank also downgraded its 2025 price prediction for aluminum to $2 540/t from $2 850/t. It maintained bearish views on iron ore and nickel, and said gold was its preferred near-term hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.
The change in Goldman’s view comes as inventories of raw materials pile up in China, with economic activity too feeble to clear surpluses. The country’s persistent property downturn, and growing headwinds for its manufacturing and export sectors are making Beijing’s target of 5% annual economic growth look increasingly tough to reach.
“Softer-than-expected China commodity demand, as well as downside risks to China’s forward economic outlook, lead us to a more selective, less constructive tactical view of commodities,” the bank said
Gold stands out as “the commodity where we have the highest confidence in bear-term upside,” Goldman said, as it maintained its $2 700/oz target for early 2025. The precious metal will be driven by increased flows from managed money players in the West as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut rates, while ongoing voracious demand from central banks will continue to add support.
Comments
Research Reports
Projects
Latest Multimedia
Latest News
Showroom
Rittal is a world leading provider of top-quality integrated systems for enclosures, power distribution, climate control, IT infrastructure and...
VISIT SHOWROOM
The SAIMM started as a learned society in 1894 after the invention of the cyanide process that saved the South African gold mining industry of the...
VISIT SHOWROOM
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
