Half-way through this decade, the platinum price has largely gone sideways, underperforming many other assets, says precious metals trader Heraeus in its latest ‘Precious Metals Appraisal’ report, published on July 14.

Including the recent price rally, Heraeus says platinum has returned 26% since January 2020, while the US stock market, on the other hand, has returned 91% and gold 119%.

“Platinum has had ‘lively’ and ‘lost’ decades. The 1970s and the 2000s were two decades in which platinum saw significant and extended bull runs. In other decades, platinum has tended to trade broadly sideways.

“The latest period of stagnation began in the 2010s and platinum has only recently broken out of this pattern. The strong recent rally is suggestive that a new bull market has started but has not yet gone far enough to confirm it,” it notes.

Usually, the company says, the lively years coincide with wider commodity bull markets plus distinct demand catalysts. The 1970s and 2000s were a part of global commodities bull markets, which also buoyed the price of oil and other commodities, it points out.

For platinum, the autocatalyst was first used on vehicles in 1975, contributing to consecutive years of platinum market deficits in the late 1970s and a huge run-up in prices.

In the 2000s, China’s economy was booming, boosting demand for oil and other mineral commodities. In the year 2000, China also adopted its first tailpipe emissions standards which saw Chinese autocatalyst demand grow fourfold in ten years.

Meanwhile, the diesel era in Europe was developing.

Heraeus says platinum has, along with silver and palladium, begun to catch up with gold’s recent run, having now risen 55% since the low in April this year.

“Gold and copper prices are both near record highs but the fundamentals for other industrial commodities are not so constructive,” it adds.

The company notes that oil demand shows weak growth while non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) oil-producing nations are lifting production, keeping the price subdued, and other base metals are not particularly highly priced.

It explains that many countries are developing rapidly but China’s economic growth has more than halved since the late 2000s and tariffs and economic uncertainty do not help matters.

Platinum has a varied demand base but at present it is difficult to see where the driver for sustained demand growth might come from, Hereaus states.

It notes that automotive demand is under threat from battery electric vehicles and that the developing hydrogen economy is still at too early a stage.

“It is also too early to tell if the current price differential to gold and positive price action will lead to stronger growth in jewellery and investment demand. However, if this is the start of a new bull market, considering the length and scale of prior bull markets there is likely to be a lot more upside”.

Additionally, Heraeus says total platinum production was 5.5-million ounces in 2024 and is projected to drop by 4% this year, following a poor start to the year in South Africa, plus lower refined production from by-product mines in North America.