Global iron-ore production growth is expected to accelerate over 2025 to 2029, with production to reach 2.92-billion tonnes by 2029, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, says in its latest ‘Outlook for iron-ore mining’ report.

This represents an average of 2.5% growth over the five-year period to 2029, compared with 1.2% over the previous five years.

Iron-ore production growth in Guinea, once the Simandou project comes online, will be a major driver of growth, BMI points out.

However, BMI anticipates development delays, as political and social instability, as well as resource nationalism, impact the sector.

Over the medium to long term, BMI expects that lower prices will push iron-ore production into stagnation and into a subsequent decline from 2032 to 2034.

Brazil's iron-ore production growth is expected to rebound in the coming years following a contraction over 2019 to 2020.

BMI expects domestic iron-ore production in Brazil to increase at a yearly average of 3.1% over 2025 to 2029, rising from 463-million tonnes to 528.7-million tonnes by 2029.

BMI holds a positive long-term growth outlook for Brazil, as a number of new projects, still in the planning stages, come online and boost production capacity.

It forecasts average yearly growth of 2% over 2030 to 2034, which would take Brazil’s yearly output to 583.6-million tonnes by 2034.

China’s iron-ore production is expected to increase by 1% year-on-year this year, as the country aims to accelerate the construction of iron-ore projects and improve its capability to ensure iron-ore supplies.

The Asian country’s iron-ore sector is anticipated to become increasingly consolidated owing to the high costs associated with mining low-grade ore and stringent environmental regulations.

These factors will lead to the gradual phasing out of iron-ore used in the production of steel, as electric arc furnaces and decarbonised steel take precedence, BMI points out.

Despite these challenges, it expects that the lower price environment will not immediately drive production down owing to political incentives to support the industry, achieve targets that increase domestic output and reduce import dependence.

BMI forecasts a 1.5% year-on-year increase in iron-ore production in Russia this year as companies pivot to better accommodate Asian consumers.

However, declining iron-ore prices are expected to put downward pressure on new project investment, thereby limiting production growth in the coming years. Despite this, BMI anticipates an uptick in production owing to expansions in output capacity at three projects.

This year, India’s iron-ore production is forecast to reach 287.9-million tonnes, growing at a rate of 1.2% year-on-year. Beyond 2025, BMI expects a gradual slowdown in growth, with iron-ore production expected to increase to 306.5-million tonnes by 2034.

Iron-ore production in Australia is expected to grow by 2.5% year-on-year this year, driven by expansions and the start of production at smaller projects, including the ramp-up of Mineral Resources’ Onslow Iron and Fortescue’s Iron Bridge.

BMI says Australia’s placement at the lowest end of the global iron-ore cost curve will provide a healthy buffer against falling prices over its forecast period.

However, after 2028, BMI forecasts that lower iron-ore prices will lead to stagnation and a subsequent decline in the country’s iron-ore production.