South Africa must establish a diversified energy mix, which entails responsibly leveraging its regional endowments, such as coal and gas, while scaling up cleaner energy sources in a phased approach with realistic timelines, according to a White Paper, titled ‘Energy security and sustainability: Striking the South African balance’ by management consultancy Kearney.

The country’s energy transition requires careful consideration of socioeconomic factors and pragmatic solutions to address its energy security crisis while supporting industrialisation and development, says Kearney partner and co-author Prashaen Reddy.

“Diversifying the energy mix in South Africa, however, does not come without challenges, as different clean technologies need to overcome specific hurdles,” he explains.

Kearney identifies several challenges which the energy transition must negotiate, including lengthy regulatory processes and limitations in enabling infrastructure, as well as the existing transmission grid’s capacity to support increased renewable energy.

There is also a need for policy and planning to consider future requirements, says Kearney principal and co-author Frances Phillips.

She highlights the importance of assessing the country’s ‘renewables ceiling’ – the percentage of variable renewable energy that the grid can tolerate without impacting on its reliability – which depends on various technical factors.  

Practical plans for modernising the grid are also essential, and while battery storage can help mitigate renewable energy’s intermittency, it currently increases the levelised cost of electricity by about four times.

Diversifying the energy mix will require investment, which, in turn, will depend on the technologies used and the pace of implementation, Phillips adds.

She posits that public–private partnerships can help stimulate investment. However, specific mechanisms and solutions must be considered based on unique requirements along the electricity value chain, including generation, transmission and distribution.  

“Despite these challenges, various electricity sources offer promising opportunities to support energy security while enhancing sustainability, industrialisation and socioeconomic development,” Reddy says.

The paper’s proposed roadmap aligns with South Africa’s draft Integrated Resource Plan 2023 and follows a two-phase approach, balancing immediate energy security needs with long-term sustainability. This strategy incorporates lessons learned internationally, while considering South Africa’s unique context.

Phase 1: Set to Grow

Phase 1 of the roadmap focuses on optimising the existing energy landscape to maintain security while preparing for a low-carbon future. This includes ensuring the efficient operation of fossil fuel generation and grid infrastructure, alongside the introduction of additional gas and renewables capacity.  

“In the short term, [the] continued use of coal is necessary, as there is no immediately available alternative to secure stable baseload at the required capacity,” says Phillips.

During Phase 1, traditional coal installations will begin to reduce while renewables and cleaner alternatives, such as gas, scale up, thereby reducing overall carbon emissions.

The country’s coal fleet, if well maintained and upgraded as needed, can provide stable baseload over its remaining life of up to 45 years, with decommissioning dates spanning from 2025 to 2069. However, responsible coal use, including carbon capture where feasible, is critical.

As existing, ageing coal-fired power stations begin to reach their end of life, they can be repurposed to generate cleaner energy, consequently preserving capacity and jobs while supporting a just transition.

Phillips explains that effective maintenance is a critical enabler of stable operation. Power-station-specific upgrades may be required, including emissions reduction systems to ensure compliance with legislated emissions limits and mitigate emissions-related load reduction.

Concurrently, ageing transmission and distribution infrastructure must be upgraded with resilient, future-focused infrastructure to ensure reliable energy supply and accommodate new generation sources.  

Phase 1 will be key in preparing for the future scaling of renewables, which entails planning for grid modernisation, as well as pumped and battery storage, which all require significant investment and implementation timelines of up to ten years.

Proactive planning for financing and policy in this regard is key, paving the way for potential future integration of storage solutions, Phillips says.

Securing regional gas supply agreements and investing in gas infrastructure are also key priorities to unlock Southern Africa’s reserves, which require coordinated investment in upstream resources and infrastructure.

Meanwhile, additional capacity from wind and solar projects will be integrated, although expansion must be managed within the grid’s existing limitations.

Preparations for nuclear expansion should also begin, considering conventional and small modular reactors, funding requirements and regulatory approvals.  

Phase 2: Scale Up

With the groundwork for grid modernisation laid in Phase 1, Phase 2 focuses on rapidly scaling renewables and clean energy.

Decentralised renewable-energy solutions will also be deployed to improve access in rural and underserved areas, consequently reducing reliance on long-distance transmission and minimising energy losses.

“This includes central installations, complemented by energy storage solutions to enable a stable electricity supply, as planned under Phase 1, as well as increasing the number of distributed renewable-energy resources to maximise energy access for unconnected rural populations,” says Reddy.

Such decentralised renewable-energy solutions will improve access in rural and underserved areas while reducing reliance on long-distance transmission, potentially alleviating congestion and minimising energy losses, he elaborates.

Technologies, such as green hydrogen, can also play an increasing role in South Africa’s energy mix, as hydrogen – an energy source and carrier – can bolster energy security, Reddy concludes.