JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Global investment in platinum bar and coin surged 660% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, when platinum outpaced gold and silver and even platinum demand from hydrogen-based applications is forecast to rise by 19% off a low base.

“Platinum has broken out of its post-pandemic trading range to be the top-performing commodity in the first six months of 2025,” World Platinum Investment Council CEO Trevor Raymond stated in a media release to Mining Weekly.

“Looking to the remainder of 2025, platinum’s investment case remains compelling, with the platinum market in structural deficit. Platinum’s sustained, significant discount relative to gold continues to add to its appeal. This is especially true in China, where both jewellery demand and bar and coin demand are forecast to show exceptionally strong growth this year. The success of Shanghai Platinum Week, which achieved record-breaking attendance and is increasingly drawing an international audience, demonstrates heightened interest in platinum, both as an investment asset and as a critical mineral across multiple value chains,” Raymond added.

The platinum price reached a ten-year high of $1 450/oz in July and platinum jewellery demand rose to the highest level since 2015 at 1 201 000 oz in the first half of 2025, with the help of a second-quarter platinum jewellery demand rise of 32% to 668 000 oz.

For full year 2025, jewellery demand is expected to increase to an 11%-higher 2 226 000 oz amid platinum continuing to benefit from its price discount relative to gold.

Forecast growth in China is expected to be a 42%-higher 585 000 oz, while Japan is expected to record a 5% gain, Europe 7% and North American 8%.

The dramatic second-quarter surge in Chinese bar and coin demand lifted total bar and coin demand to a 55%-higher 109 000 oz and bars of 500 g and more in China to a 33%-higher 47 000 oz.

However, neither this growth, nor second-quarter exchange-traded-fund (ETF) inflows were sufficient to offset the impact caused by the outflow of stocks held by exchanges, which had accumulated to first-quarter high levels owing to tariff-related concerns. As a result, investment demand saw a net outflow of 64 000 oz in the second quarter.

For full year 2025, total investment demand is forecast to grow 2% to 718 000 oz on continued strong investment demand in China, where bar and coin growth is forecast to offset weakness in other regions.

Total bar and coin demand is forecast to rise to a 45%-higher 282 000 oz and demand for bars of 500 g and above in China to rise to a 15%-higher 186 000 oz.

ETFs are expected to see a resumption of net inflows during the course of the second half of the year to reach 100 000 oz, driven by improved investor sentiment following a recent price surge, robust underlying fundamentals and platinum’s sustained discount to gold.

Platinum demand from hydrogen-based applications is on its way towards reaching 49 000 oz in 2025, a rise of more than 8 000 oz.

Although deployments have been slower than expected, order books for proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers are growing, and the regulatory environment is maintaining signs of support that will likely lift PEM demand still further.

In July, the US Senate approved a budget reconciliation bill extending the eligibility window for the Section 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit, a revision that gives developers an additional two years to begin construction, moving the deadline from early 2026 to 1 January 2028.

AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND BEATS PRIOR FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE

Second-quarter automotive demand for platinum of 769 000 oz was only 2% down, despite the major uncertainty caused by US tariff policy precariousness. The full-year outlook sees global automotive demand falling 3% to 3 033 000 oz as production of catalysed vehicles declines in both light and heavy-duty segments. Nevertheless, automotive demand will be 10% (281 000 oz) above the prior five-year average.

FEWER GLASS CAPACITY EXPANSIONS

Industrial platinum demand, which grew by 41% quarter-on-quarter to 513 000 oz in quarter-two, is forecast to fall 22% in full-year 2025 to 1 901 000 oz, largely owing to anticipated reductions in glass demand which is expected to decline by 74% to 177 000 oz. Chemical demand is expected to fall by 8% to 575 000 oz, offsetting gains in petroleum (+14% to 181 000 oz), hydrogen (+19% to 49 000 oz), medical (+4% to 320 000 oz) and electrical (+2% to 95 000 oz).