Industry association Energy Council of South Africa is confident that South Africa will remain out of sustained loadshedding for the next three to four years, owing to the rapid growth in electricity generation.

However, risks remain, particularly State-owned utility Eskom’s fleet reliability and any “catastrophic failures” as have been seen in the past.

“Without intervention the risk of a future crisis towards the end of the decade is very real and likely,” says Energy Council CEO James Mackay, who adds that this will manifest in two forms.

The first form would arise from less-than-targeted investment in new generation, leading to insufficient energy supply, which results in further prolonged dependency on unreliable, inefficient and emissions noncompliant coal-fired power stations. The second form would arise from a lack of balanced, integrated energy development, resulting in system instability and high levels of private generation curtailment.

In addition to loadshedding, “these risks could further delay coal decommissioning to stay out of loadshedding”. However, further extending coal-powered stations beyond 2030 would cause reputational damage, legislative noncompliance and deindustrialisation under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and other carbon taxes, which will be fully implemented by 2030, Mackay warns.

He stresses that wind and solar alone, cannot replace the energy lost from coal decommissioning. To ensure long-term energy security, South Africa must accelerate coal sector modernisation while significantly expanding battery storage and gas-to-power capacity.

Current targets call for the yearly addition of 4 GW of utility-scale wind and solar until 2035, alongside 1 GW of rooftop solar PV. This must be complemented by about 7 GW of gas-to-power, and up to 12 GW of battery storage by 2035 to achieve a more stable energy mix, with about 40% clean power, which Mackay notes is “still very timid on global standards”.

Acknowledging that the challenges and cost become exponential when integrating renewables at high penetration levels, he asserts that South Africa can move with relative ease at the early stages but meeting its targets will require its expanding and modernising the national grid, transitioning to a competitive energy market and addressing inefficiencies in municipal distribution.

“South Africans must acknowledge our abundant coal endowment, which our power sector has been built on.”

With the Kusile and Medupi power stations, in Mpumalanga and in Limpopo respectively, scheduled to operate beyond 2070, coal generation remains essential unless sufficient financial resources become available to retire these plants early.

Until these power stations are retired, efforts must include ensuring coal-fired power is as reliable, efficient and emissions-conscious as possible over the next three decades, Mackay avers.

Out of the Dark
At the end of 2022, South Africa faced multiple crises – a culmination of years of corruption, maladministration and stagnant growth – evident in the form of loadshedding, Mackay reflects.

This resulted in the country being placed on the Financial Action Task Force grey list in early 2023, signalling global concerns over financial governance. However, this setback spurred a call to action, along with an unprecedented level of collaboration between government and business, driving urgent reforms, he says.

“The general public [is] largely unaware of the significant effort made by government and business through 2023 and 2024 to rapidly implement corrective actions in Eskom and address loadshedding.”

Loadshedding also stimulated an exponential private-sector investment response, with an immediate peak in rooftop solar investment in 2023 exceeding 2 300 MW.

Further, recognising the longer preparation time for large utility projects, peak investment from the private sector is estimated to have exceeded R30-billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Growing confidence in public–private partnerships also accelerated key policy changes, which include the passing of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill and the legal separation of the National Transmission Company of South Africa from Eskom.

These reforms have contributed to a rapid growth in confidence and a rapid increase in electricity generation, surpassing expectations and addressing loadshedding, for the most part.

Addressing Misinformation
While the energy transition presents opportunities for economic growth and job creation, “it is a daunting and complex challenge that can easily be seen as a threat to those who are less or ill-informed”, says Energy Council operations manager Pippa Brown.

She says the national narrative on energy has significantly improved in the last 12 to 18 months but warns that the public perception that South Africa’s energy challenges are fully resolved risks complacency.

Without proactive investment in skills and innovation, the country could miss out on the immense economic opportunities emerging in the sector, she adds.

To this end, the Energy Council has launched the Energise Mzansi campaign to boost energy literacy and empower South Africans to engage in the energy transition.

The nationwide campaign aims to address misinformation and improve public understanding of energy transition challenges by breaking down complex topics into accessible, practical information, Brown explains.

Through a dedicated website and coordinated communications, the campaign provides key information, data and tools, consequently allowing for inclusive, informed dialogue on the path to a sustainable and equitable energy future.

Recognising socioeconomic concerns linked to the energy transition, the campaign highlights tangible benefits such as job creation, cost savings, emissions reduction and emerging opportunities in new energy markets.

Further, by collaborating with industry partners, regional economic initiatives and sustainability-focused organisations, the council aims to address the concerns of the affected communities.

“We envision a future where we can connect communities with tangible opportunities in the evolving energy landscape,” Brown concludes.