SANTIAGO - Chile's state copper commission slashed its 2025 growth estimate for the country's production, saying it now expected an increase of 1.5% from last year, half the 3% growth it had estimated in May.

Cochilco said on Wednesday that production in the world's top copper exporter is expected to reach 5.58-million metric tons this year, maintaining its forecast for average copper prices in 2025 and 2026 at $4.30/lb.

The commission said the slide in forecast growth was due to a June decline in production at BHP's Escondida mine, the largest copper deposit in the world, and at Collahuasi, which is jointly run by Anglo American and Glencore.

"The decline in June is a turning point for the year, and while the cumulative figure is still positive, the downward monthly trend highlights risks for the second half of the year if it isn't corrected," the commission said in a report.

It also said that the recent deadly collapse at Codelco's El Teniente mine could pose a "significant risk of supply disruption."

For 2026, Cochilco maintained its growth estimate at 3% year-on-year, but dropped its production estimate to 5.75-million tons from 5.97-million tons.

Globally, the commission said it maintained its price estimate due to a limited supply of concentrate and sustained demand from China and other emerging economies.

It expected the market to remain "structurally tight," given that smelting capacity growth, particularly in Asia, will outpace supply.

"This imbalance between processing capacity and supply will be key to maintaining prices above the historical average, even if some of the volatility generated by tariffs or inventory cycles decreases," Cochilco's head of research, Patricia Gamboa, said in a statement.

Globally, demand for refined copper is expected to grow 2.4% to 27 million tons in 2026. China remains the top copper consumer with an estimated demand of 15.7-million tons in 2025 and 15.8-million in 2026. Cochilco expects demand from India to grow 7.5% in 2025, driven by industrialization and the energy transition.