Goldman Sachs anticipates surge in US copper net imports
US net copper imports could rise by 50% to 100% in the coming months due to higher US prices before the Trump administration's planned tariffs, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday.
The May 2025 US copper price is currently trading at $756 per metric ton over the global benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) price, after the US initiated an investigation into possible tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production, the bank said.
Although no duty has been proposed yet, Goldman Sachs expects a 25% tariff on copper imports by year-end, leading to the surge in imports and 200 000-t to 300 000-t increase in US copper inventories by the end of the third quarter.
The higher U.S. price is projected to boost US copper stocks from the current 95,000 t to at least 300 000 t to 400 000 t by the end of the third quarter, the bank said. This would account for 45-60% of global reported inventories, leaving very low copper inventories elsewhere, it added.
Goldman Sachs also forecasts a 180 000-t global copper market deficit in 2025 due to robust electrification demand, China stimulus, and slower mine supply growth, expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year due to seasonal factors.
"We maintain our forecast that the LME three-month price will average $10 200/t in 2024 Q3, and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in timespreads," Goldman Sachs said.
"We forecast a maximum $350/t LME Sep-Dec backwardation, based on the LME backwardation rising to a level that will close the US import arbitrage."
Three-month copper on the LME CMCU3 was trading at $9 623.5 a metric ton, as of 15:05 GMT.
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